STRATDELA 2.0 #1: New machine
Welcome remarks
Hi all, polling on twitter said that it might be a good idea trying switching to this newsletter platform, hope you'll enjoy it. Mailchimp no longer works with Russians anyway.
It seems that 2020 and 2021 were not the most dramatic years this decade, but there's still a lot of work to be done. So, let's keep track on all things strategic and nuclear to seek a way forward.
With STRATDELA project restarted, I am planning to add two more dimensions:
1) Short remarks, news and memes via telegram channel, so join https://t.me/stratdela;
2) Longer analytical pieces on selected topics, with links included in the newsletter. Likely on Medium.
Now to some traditional sections, slightly updated though.
Strategic offensive weapons
The biggest piece of news over the last several months is, of course, flight test of the Sarmat heavy liquid-fueld ICBM.
There was a lot of footage, including the (in)famous Voyennaya Priyemka. BTW some nice people ar uploading their videos with English translations, so here are direct links to the three episodes about Sarmat:
1 - https://youtu.be/m6i6ImbiKqQ
2 - https://youtu.be/1In1xSt2f5w
3 - https://youtu.be/RrCPQD-x1p0
The last one includes some stuff on Avangard missile system tipped with a hypersonic winged glide vehicle, but more on it later.
The bottom line is that we expect more Sarmat launches in the coming months, and the symbolic deployment in the form of a 'regiment' armed with several silos remains possible before 2022 ends. Probably with some sort of 'vanilla' payload, i.e. traditional MIRV without extra bells and whistles - which is pretty serious anyway. Probably tests of HGV- and FOBS/"South Pole" payload-tipped Sarmats will take place in the years to come, but those are just my guesses. The most interesting thing is that our guys decided to show the impact of the Sarmat dummy warheads, this was unexpected and welcome. Useful detail - designers seems rather too optimistic about Sarmat silo capable of withstanding all sorts of attacks.
Avangard project is slowly, but steadily moving forward. Second regiment with next six silos is buing deployed, and the provisional end goal of two regiments with twelve launchers seems totally feasible.
Again, silos are protected with a lot of stuff short of "active defenses", i.e. point missile defenses.
Rearmament of road-mobile and silo units with Yars is also progressing, to be completed in a year or two...with probably modernized and next generation relatively (or absolutely) light solid fuel ICBMs already under development.
Belgorod special purpose nuclear submarine, the carrier for Poseidon multipurpose ocean system (among other things) is undergoing trials. Nothing new on its main armament though.
No news on Burevestnik nuclear-powered unlimited range cruise missile as well.
Air leg of the Russian nuclear triad is being gradually modernized, nothing to note so far - apart their rather active involvement in strikes on Ukrainian territory, obviously, with conventional weapons. One of the units (121 heavy bombers) received a guards designator in April: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/letters/68156.
In other countries, the most interesting stories was what seemed as increased activity of French SSBNs and more or less explicit acknowledgement of nuclear buildup by the Chinese officials.
#hyperhype
The biggest hypersonic weapons related event lately is the actual use of the Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic aeroballistic missile against targets in Ukraine. Russian MoD published a rather detailed summary: https://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12414156@egNews
Still limited data on actual performance, but the use is a fact, and the targets seem properly destroyed. There were just several uses though, which also makes sense: a lot of weapons tailored to overcome missile defenses are overkill for this environment.
Tsirkon sea-launched hypersonic missile had been flight-teste to what seems to be its maximum range and declared operational for surface vessels: https://www.interfax.ru/russia/844020
First designated carrier, Admiral Golovko frigate, is expected to enter service in late 2022.
Simultaneously, it seems that hypersonic weapons projects in the US are experiencing some issues, the latest one being th Navy with CPS. LRHW "Dark Eagle" is portrayed as something closer to operational deployment, with folks at Lewis-McChord learning how to live with it day-to-day. I was a bit surprised with a visit by the Japanese delegation to take a look at this beast - probably we might see some level of cooperation in the hypersonic domain somewhat similar to the SM-3 Block IIA. Will write more about LRHW later, stay tuned.
Diplomacy
Probably the biggest news is Lukashenko and Putin discussing options to mirror NATO Nuclear Sharing arrangement and threat of the US nukes moving closer to the Union State. Bottom line: no actual deployment of the Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus announced so far, but explicitly dual-capable Iskander-M seems to be a done deal, as well as refurbished Su-25 (!) attack aircraft.
Ryabkov explicitly ruling out any possibility of nuclear us by Russia in Ukraine is also important, although some military people saying the same might be useful too.
On the P5 front before the NPR RevCon the situation seesm rather grim, but no disasters so far. And there is even a Young Professionals Network launched, so stay tuned. Don't forget about the new edition of the Glossary too: http://chnun.chinamission.org.cn/chn/zgylhg/cjyjk/npt/202112/P020211229400269960446.pdf
Space
Things are rapidly developing in space, with a lot of assets being deployed and repurposed to address the current events. Growing use of commercial capabilities for military ends seems a new normal.
Russian space capabilities and plans are also being reconsidered given the state of international cooperation.
Missile Defense
Lots of expert discussions at different formats, but nothing substantial worth mentioning. So far.
Further reading
Brace yourselves, lots of stuff coming.
First, my good friend Alexander Yermakov tried to think deep about nuclear triads. This stuff will be assembled into a separate publication, but so far one can read two parts in English:
Third one is in Russian only, but English is coming: https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/yadernoe-budushchee-pod-vodoy-i-v-nebesakh/
On Missile Defense, there were several in-depth papers both by proponents and opponents, such as:
https://www.aip.org/fyi/2022/physicists-argue-us-icbm-defenses-are-unreliable (updated version of the report seems to be under development now - https://www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-reports/missile-defense.cfm)
https://missilethreat.csis.org/complex-air-defense-countering-the-hypersonic-missile-threat-2/
https://www.csis.org/events/boost-phase-missile-defense-interrogating-assumptions
https://nipp.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Analysis-Bosbotinis-2.1.pdf
On more immediate events, Alexey Arbatov delivered remarks at the IMEMO Scientific Council on Strategic Stability during the current crisis: https://www.imemo.ru/files/File/ru/events/2022/23052022/Arbatov-23052022.pdf
In Russian, and there will be a proper paper on the subject, but still iseful reading.
Roscosmos published all (ALL) issues of the Novosti Kosmonavtiki journal from 1991 to 2018 on their website ((which is probably not accessible from the Western countries...): https://www.roscosmos.ru/33921/
Now, some papers by yours truly:
On Military Space (in Russian) - https://www.researchgate.net/publication/359437999_Voennoe_izmerenie_kosmiceskogo_prostranstva_segodna_i_zavtra
On Nuclear Trends in South Asia - https://nationalsecurityjournal.nz/wp-content/uploads/sites/13/2022/02/NSJ-2022-March-Stefanovich.pdf
On Hypersonic Weapons and MTCR (w/Kolja Brockmann) - https://www.sipri.org/publications/2022/other-publications/hypersonic-boost-glide-systems-and-hypersonic-cruise-missiles-challenges-missile-technology-control
On Missile Proliferation (w/Konstantin Bogdanov, in Russian, but stay tuned for the English version) - https://sciencejournals.ru/issues/obns/2022/vol_2022/iss_2/ObNS_2202005Bogdanov/ObNS_2202005Bogdanov-site.html
On Space Competition (w/ Daniel Porras) - https://www.interanalytics.org/jour/article/view/426/373
On Current Nuclear Escalation Threats (In Russian, but stay tuned for the English version) - https://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/spetsialnye-boevye-chasti-i-spetsialnaya-voennaya-operatsiya/
On Risk Reduction Measures - https://cms.apln.network/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Chapter-14.-Dmitry-Stefanovich.pdf
On Space Cooperation - https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/space-activities/
...probably enough of self-PR:)
Music
One of the best live performers these days are ZEAL&ARDOR, enjoy their set at Hellfest 2022: https://youtu.be/CIlTyWaYXGE
End titles
We live in truly tragic times, but it will get better. Not for everyone though.
Anyway, hope you are still with me, feel free to reach out, etc.
Will do my best to keep the newsletter as regular as possible.