STRATDELA #30
It's been a while, again, but things keep rolling, this issue is very long. Inappropriate break in releasing new stuff, but will do my best to deliver several important newsletters before 2025 begins!
Strategic offensive weapons
Obviously, a lot of things happened.
In the Russian Navy, Yury Dolgorukiy Borei (955) SSBN entered first planned repairs/overhaul. Should take 2-3 years. In the meantime, Suvorov SSBN returned from its maiden patrol.
Backfire, Bear and Blackjack bombers had some fun during the Russian Navy “Okean” exercise. During the same exercise, Aleksandr III SSBN traveled under Arctic Sea and eventually met the US Coast Guard.
Sarmat launch was expected and, reportedly, failed. Sad, but the program is a challenge. Accidents happen, however personally I’ve never been a fan of this beast. Still, at the current stage it is more likely that we will increase efforts on the project rather than scrap it.
Yars TELs rolled here and there, day and night, nothing new and special, still need to train and demonstrate dispersal capabilities.
Traditional Russian Strategic Deterrence Forces exercise happened. Scenario: massive nuclear retaliation after adversary first nuclear use. Yars ICBM launched from Plesetsk to Kura, Novomoskovsk SSBN launched Sineva SLBM from Barents Sea, Knyaz Oleg SSBN - Bulava SLBM from Okhotsk Sea. Tu-95 launched some ALCMs. Exercise clearly scaled down, which seems to be a new normal
Some B-2A Spirits flew to Australia.
Also Spirits took out some Houthi targets. And Australia played a role as well.
Whiteman AFB will become the second Raider base. Pretty sure you know where to find relevant STRATDELA specials, but ping me in case you’d feel lost. Some new B-21 footage also shown:
Reportedly, the Raider flies a lot and flies good.
This catch is really nice:
It might become a part of NGAD as well, and the construction rate might increase soon.
AI and NC3 are a thing, in the US as well.
Tornado flew with B61-12 around Edwards AFB:
NATO nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon happened. Good explainer available here.
UK still committed to nukes, CASD, etc. Nothing new though. I wonder how’s the Dreadnought after the latest fire at the BAE Systems shipyard…and there are some issues with the patrols and supplies too.
PLARF unexpectedly launched DF-31AG to their Akvatoriya, I mean, to the distant region of the Pacific ocean.
Some quality OSINT and that Chinese launch published here.
French nuclear command post at Taverny reportedly coming back online. FCAS might have a nuclear mission as a platform for the ASN4G.
India floated out fourth SSBN.
DPRK launched Hwasong-19.
Hyperhype
Proper LRHW Dark Eagle test still in plans this year. Let’s wait a little longer…
Some British hypersonic weapon programmes might get scrapped, Rolls-Royce/Reaction Engines HVX in this case. Still hypersonic capability remains among the priorities.
New RTX and NG hypersonic missile mockups (taken from here):
ARRW remains in limbo, likely on a path to get scrapped finally.
Reportedly, Iran used Fattah hypersonic missiles to take out Israeli Arrow-3 launchers, but there is still a lot of fog of war over all these exchanges with both sides claiming a lot of success.
New picture of the DPRK HGV, doesn’t look credible enough.
Post-INF
Typhon might appear in Japan soon, although there are some debates. By the way, there is some discussion on this topic in Russia as well. Philippines are really happy to have it on their soil now, and are looking forward to get more goodies. Typhon itself, as expected, turned out to be not as mobile as the US Army wants it to be. Future versions expected. Still they are happy about the deployment.
While not exactly matching the INF-range threshold, Australia’s future ‘land-based maritime strike’ shows a rather traditional way of obtaining exactly this sort of capability.
Missile Defense
Ship-based missile defenses proliferate - welcome Sea Viper Evolution.
Northrop-Grumman will be the one to design the future Glide Phase Interceptor. Japan will also play a role by the way.
Guam Defense plans getting scaled back. I wonder if it has something to do with the Middle East…
Military Space
Cool satellite laser communications for the US PWSA and Early Warning tested successfully by the SDA. Note the involvement of German private industry.
Space-based GMTI/AMTI capability should appear around early 2030s in the US, which might become a serious challenge for nuclear deterrence sustainability, although currently the focus is on tactical tracking applications.
Polish military also wants into space. The bigger picture is that ICEYE and SAR in general becomes crucial ISR factor. Generally remote sensing is, well, crucial for a modern conflict.
Angara 1.2 delivered some classified payload into orbit, Cosmos 2577 & 2578.
Russian “nuclear ASAT” thing remains an important talking point without any further details.
US Reserve Space Fleet is becoming a real thing. No surprises here.
US Army has its own vision and plans for future space missions.
Cooperation between Australia and South Korea might become quite fruitful in this field.
More US Missile Defense space layer contracts signed, and some for early warning as well.
US Satellite Jammer nearing deployment.
Military Industry
This will eventually go to some of the other sections (actually I might add a section on missile proliferation specifically, probably replacing both Post-INF and #hyperhype…), but I believe following MBDA Future Cruise/Anti-Ship missile project is important. This thing will definitely affect the missile related trends.
New players in the missile game are also important, i.e. Anduril developing low-cost cruise missiles.
If and when JASSM-XR becomes a thing, it will complicate planning as well. Still, the trend in making your cruise missiles fly for longer and longer ranges can hardly be reversed.
Kongsberg is among the few Western defense manufacturers who actually increase production and build new facilities, and NSM/JSM is becoming one of the most proliferated Western missiles.
SRM production is kind of a bottleneck for the US and US allies, and efforts are being made to address this issue. Australia likely to become an important player here eventually.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group is having some fun in simulating nuclear scenarios.
Commander-in-chief of the Russian Navy commenting on the arrival of new SSBN to the Pacific Fleet said that all SSBNs are at the highest readiness.
You’ve all heard about the Meeting of the Security Council standing conference on nuclear deterrence, where some changes in the Russian Nuclear Doctrine have been announced. No document so far though.
I think AUKUS Pillar II belongs to this section so far. Pretty interesting stuff going on there in terms of hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, ASuW, AI and other things.
“The United States stands ready to engage in talks with Russia, China, and North Korea without preconditions to reduce the nuclear threat.” - Russia not impressed.
Russia and DPRK are becoming formal military allies. Kind of.
P5/N5 met in New York, nothing special so far, but I will follow the Chinese chairmanship closely.
Xi Jinping “has urged the country's strategic missile troops to strengthen their deterrence and combat capabilities”.
Further reading (and watching)
Space Security Legal Primer by UNIDIR is a must-read
Important op-ed on future POTUS nuclear policies, not this phrase:
...the president should require the intelligence community and the Department of State to analyze how China and, for that matter, Russia would respond to a U.S. buildup.
Germany in the Third Nuclear Age - no comments needed
Good CGTN op-ed on 'Two Bombs and One Satellite' spirit
Interview with Novaya Zemlya test range chief, nothing special though.
English version of that awesome paper about INF-ish stuff is also available
Fresh US NNSA SSMP
Fans of active and aggressive nuclear deterrence are everywhere, not limited to one or two countries
My thoughts on future changes in the Russian Nuclear Doctrine
Statement by Vladimir Ermakov, Head of the Delegation of the Russian Federation, Director of the Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, at the General Debate in the First Committee of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly, New York, 15 October 2024.
Statement by Mr. Sun Xiaobo, Director General of the Department of Arms Control of MFA of China at the General Debate of 79th UNGA First Committee
Video of a panel on space contestation at the Islamabad Non-Proliferation Conference:
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s interview to Argumenty i Fakty newspaper includes some stuff on nukes and space
Dual-Use “New Space”: US Experience, a scholarly article in Russian
Space Agenda 2025 collection
Long interview with Alexey Arbatov, in Russian
Me talking about AI and strategic stuff, and other people talking about other military technical issues during Chanakya Defence Dialogue:
And as a reminder - latest STRATDELA Special, which is, well, kind of special and remains very relevant.
Music
One and only Duff McKagan knows his punk-rock:
End Notes
I’ll just leave this here, as it deserves a separate discussion…
See you all soon!