STRATDELA #32
Final month of the year is always busy...this time we have a lot of drama.
Let’s start with the same topic: now we have a somewhat semi-official translation of the new Russian nuclear doctrine: Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence
Now, to traditional sections.
Strategic offensive weapons
New joint Russian-Chinese heavy bomber patrol happened on November 29th.
Reportedly, this time proper Chinese H-6N nuclear bomber participated. Refueling and Russian bombers taking off from Chinese airfields included.
Knyaz Pozharsky SSBN delivery delayed for about 6 months.
Some expected news from Ellsworth AFB:
The Air Force is moving 800 airmen and 17 supersonic B-1 bombers from their South Dakota base for 10 months so construction crews can prepare the runway for the secretive B-21 Raider stealth bomber’s eventual arrival.
Everything you wanted to know about its upgrades to host the Raider can be read in this STRATDELA Special #11
Gen. Thomas A. Bussiere said some tasty things:
- autonomous Collaborative Combat Aircraft possible as partners for heavy bombers;
- desired re-evaluation of B-21 numbers;
- speed up replacement of B-1 and B-2;
- mobile ICBMs not on the table as of now.
Hyperhype
Zumwalt upgraded with CPS launchers and floated out.
Rather epic Russian naval exercise took place in the Eastern Mediterranean with a clear hypersonic (and anti-ship) flavour, Tsirkon and Kinzhal included.
Dark Eagle again sighted at Cape Canaveral.
Post-INF
Japanese GLCMs are becoming a thing.
Oreshnik IRBM might be deployed to Belarus in the second half of 2025.
Early Warning and Missile Defense
Reportedly, Russia and India are nearing an agreement on Voronezh radars. Big deal if true, especially given the Russian support in building a Chinese Early Warning system. NFU they say…
SM-3 Block IIA successfully intercepted MRBM-class target near Guam. Still can’t find where they’ve put this fancy launcher though, but a STRATDELA Special is almost complete.
Military Space
Proliferated Low-Earth Orbit services are extremely popular in the US military, and also very money-consuming.
More Russian military spacecraft delivered to space by Soyuz-2.1b from Plesetsk on December 4th. Cosmos-2580. Likely a new Lotos-S1 electronic recon satellite.
Space wargaming becoming quite more and more useful, here’s something The Aerospace Corporation delivered.
Military Industry
NSM/JSM factory in Australia under construction.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
Final formalities on Russia-DPRK Strategic Partnership Treaty complete.
Talks about Oreshnik deployment in Belarus mentioned above might be related to giving Team Trump about half a year to actually consider taking an offer on regional INF-range weapons moratorium. Belarussian MoD made a direct link with US plans to deploy such weapons in Germany.
Pause in US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group operations because of coup/martial law attempt in Seoul is highly symbolic.
There was a P5/N5 meeting on December 4 in Dubai. They’ve discussed nuclear doctrines. Good.
Further reading (and watching)
A story for those who wonder how Russian strategic missileers live in Uzhur.
English translation of commentaries about revised Fundamentals of Russian nuclear deterrence policy.
My thoughts on Oreshnik [In Russian].
Long interview with Sergey Ryabkov with some points on nuclear doctrine and nuclear testing.
English translation of my thoughts on NPT.
More thoughts on Oreshnik, with English translation.
Relatively academic paper on the security dilemma in the North due to Finland and Sweden joining NATO and Russian measures in response. Open access, but in Russian.
STRATDELA SPECIAL #13 about new Euromissiles.
Translation of my comments about possible Oreshnik deployment in Belarus.
Good paper on the challenge of AI/NC3 integration.
Big interview with Yuri Borisov, head of Roscosmos.
Good piece on Guam missile defense.
Music
Old-school hardcore punk about Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings and overall catastrophic consequences of nuclear use.
End Notes
…And the stars shalt fall from the skies. © 12 Main Directorate.