STRATDELA #35
Spring blooms
Here we go again.
Strategic offensive weapons
Have a snowy Yars, in case it is already hot at your place of stay these days:
Tagil (42nd) and Barnaul (35th) missile divisions rolled out for “exams” after winter training period. Nothing special.
In the meantime, preparations are ongoing for the rearmament of Topol-M units - including conversion of those ICBMs into Start-1M SLVs.
Have a rainy Yars as well:
US Strategic Command wants a lot of new toys, including 145 B-21s. But also a bit concerned with B-52J project. At the same time new LEP for MM-III might become a reality.
B-2 gathering at Diego Garcia was quite fun to follow.
Chinese heavy bombers also got caught on satellite images - over South China Sea.
Some reports surfaced about possible Russian long-range aviation deployment to Indonesia, but nothing really substantial so far.
B-1s deploy to Japan as a Bomber Task Force 25-2.
B-21s expected at Ellsworth rather sooner than later. Still, this beast is expensive.
UK will get next-gen SSBNs sooner or later, HMS Dreadnought keel laid.
Not really strategic, but still: USAF F-35 squadron at RAF Lakenheath fully operational, and it is only a matter of time when B-61s will get there as well.
Hyperhype
Kratos getting more and more involved in hypersonic projects - some secret drone under development.
French V-MaX prepares for a new flight test this year, with a local booster. Still unclear what will be its major deployment mode, I think both SLBM and IRBM options might be on the table. Or even smth air-launched.
In Russia, first designated underwater “Tsirkon carrier”, or rather hypersonic weapon certified SSGN, Perm’, has been floated out. By the way, it was labeled “a weapon capable of fulfilling strategic-level missions” by President Putin.
Brits are also playing with hypersonic tech.
US Navy HALO hypersonic anti-ship weapon is put on hold.
LRHW formally designated as “Dark Eagle”. There were reports about its possible new test from Cape Canaveral, however it might have been this US Navy CPS test instead.
New commercial players can enter hypersonic business too
Post-INF
MDTF project still developing. 3rd MDTF prepares for Pacific deployment in a few years. Updated scheme of a ‘generic MDTF’ dropped via CRS:
No MRC Typhon live fires in the Philippines this Spring though.
Nice Typhon artwork (taken here):
US Army might be interested in the ‘small’ uncrewed Tomahawk launcher first deployed by the US Marine Corps. Makes sense.
Partly related to this topic: Japan still thinking about deployment areas for new surface-to-surface missiles. Starting with anti-ship flavour, but Tomahawks are in the pipeline. Domestic long-range cruise missile also under development.
Australians openly announce 500+ range for PrSM and plans to mate it with HIMARS launchers.
PrSM Increment 1 in production till 2030. Increment 3 might get some fancy smart payloads.
Early Warning and Missile Defense
Australian OTH radar getting ready for export to Canada is kind of both expected and unexpected: Canada has been interested in this capability for a while, and Australian JORN is quite capable and modernized, but still.
USAF also planning some OTH Radar efforts.
(Ping me in case you want to know more about OTH radars, I will be happy to share a paper I’ve written on this topic several years ago - in Russian though.)
Missile interceptors seems to be getting deployed in space eventually. Sad.
Golden Dome, in the meantime, might not become a single system delivered. Briefings and decisions expected soon, but still nothing cast in stone.
SpaceX with Anduril and Palantir building an information layer for the Golden Dome and offering subscription services actually looks credible.
SM-6 intercepted a notional hypersonic missile, although I believe testing of HBTSS space layer was a priority mission.
Nice ALBM IRBM Target missile shot via Sandia:
More ‘tactical’ stuff: new US Army LTAMDS radar seems to be getting into production, and Patriot missiles production tempo has been increased.
Containerized Mk41 launchers for Australia might help with IAMDS…but also with INF-range weapons. By the way, such launchers (as well as Mk70 flavor) can be produced in Japan.
Europeans are funding some counter-hypersonic research.
Military Space
US Space Force et al. continue to be vocal in support of offensive counterspace weapons. Folks in Colorado are not super-happy. Counterspace and Space Control getting integrated as well.
Of course, poor US folks are forced to do it because of other guys not behaving as they would like them to. Anyway, WEAPONS IN SPACE! WEAPONS IN SPACE! Also, first strike! Nuclear powered spacecraft might help.
Space Warfighting Framework for planners released. Nice.
Amazon also wants to get into military space services business.
UK wants domestic launch options.
LeoLabs advertises mobile radar for SSA (and likely missile defense) missions.
Military Industry
Lockheed Martin actively diversifying and expanding solid fuel motor production facilities. Australia already onboard, Europe comes next.
Northrop Grumman and Nammo are pooling resources for production of Mk 72 SRM production under Raytheon contract.
South Korea and Poland are also working together on missile production.
Testing capabilities are also part of industry, right? Also this R3V looks a bit like MaRV…
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
Some interesting signals in this interview by Sergey Shoigu:
Future strategic stability dialogue should address issues of NATO expansion, US global missile defense and INF-range deployment plans, British and French arsenals.
Oreshnik deployment is driven by threat perceptions in Minsk and thus might not be a part of the Russia-US deal.
Nuclear testing can be resumed if the US starts nuclear testing as a part of its nuclear modernization. At the same time, new Russian weapons, including strategic weapons, make it less a pressing issue for Russia.
Nukes and space weaponization addressed by BRICS Foreign Ministers.
Debate on nuclear umbrella ongoing in Germany.
Further reading (and listening)
My thoughts on security cooperation between Russia and China [In Russian]
My thoughts on the strategic weapons related dimension of the Sino-American competition [In Russian]
A report on Sandia Lab accomplishments in 2025
More arguments for US nuclear testing
Analysis on what to do with missile proliferation becoming a new normal
SWF Global Counterspace Capabilities Report 2025
Good overview of current Russian space enterprise state of affairs [In Russian]
Some stuff on “Moon Jackal” [In Russian]
Interesting points on British and French nuclear convergence
Good paper on space diplomacy and weaponization
Russian view on French nuclear developments
Interview with Sergey Lavrov
Strange, but interesting piece on B-2 for Australia
Paper on non-proliferation and peaceful uses of nuclear technology
Analysis of incompatibility of Golden Dome and denuclearization
Music
Go listen to new IMPERIAL TRIUMPHANT album on your favourite streaming service, from start to finish. Twice at least.
End Notes
Stay sane, folks.
