STRATDELA #36
Ready for Summer?
Lots of things happened in May, let’s dive in.
Strategic offensive weapons
Yars on parade, now let’s move on.
Now we know for sure about the next generation of the French nuclear warheads: TNO-2 and TNA4G for the M51.3 SLBM and ASN4G hypersonic ALCM respectively.
Nothing new and nothing good in terms of estimates for the US nuclear modernization. Also, Sentinel ICBM will need new silos.
Some cost and time issues with B-52J new radar program, let’s see how this develops. More B-21s might get a new justification.
B61-13 is alive and well.
Minuteman-III launched from Vandenberg, in single warhead mode, no mentions of notifications to Russia or HCoC, which is not surprising given the change in Administration. Still, I believe notifications have been submitted appropriately.
In the meantime, looks like another POKER happened in France.
Tu-95s flew over the Barents Sea.
Hyperhype
Stratolaunch somewhat proved their capabilities for hypersonic testing, which might be rather useful.
Some people believe that a Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine (RDRE) might help with hypersonic flight, and Venus Aerospace delivered some limited successes. Let’s watch this space.
Post-INF (and other long-range precision weapons)
New 2000 km advanced deep strike something to be developed by Germany and the UK. Nothing is clear so far.
Turns out it will be a part of ELSA. And there will be 13 (THIRTEEN) pillars of ELSA. And each will be led by a country or a group of countries depending on their capabilities. And everyone is afraid of one country (you can guess which) getting too much weight in the project. Oh, it is already a fun project to follow, and it is getting even better! Just ICYMI, there was a dedicated STRATDELA Special not long ago:
Here is some new information on the French efforts specifically, and it looks like MBDA focuses on the GLCM and Ariane Groupe - on the MRBM.
In the meantime, Oreshnik IRBM deployment to Belarus is proceeding as planned, but it is not yet there. As there seems to be little or zero interest in the Russian post-INF moratorium initiative in Washington and a push for similar capabilities in Europe we might see this beast alive rather sooner than later.
German Navy wants Tomahawks, while the Dutch might end up with the French MdCN instead.
Early Warning and Missile Defense
The Golden Dome is on, and it will cost a lot. There were three rumored options, and the one that is being pursued right now seems kind of limited (on all accounts), although of course publicly officials are relatively optimistic.
MDA announced the Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) effort and plans to spend some moneys over the next decade. Looks like it will be linked with the Golden Dome, and I imagine a lot of bureaucratic bloodshed in the process. More details here.
Less high-profile, but still important, is the delivery of an upgraded GaN-based AN/TPY-2.
GAO has some questions about the Guam Defense System. We have a STRATDELA Special on this topic as well:
By the way, it seems that the fancy AN/TPY-6 Radar will not be used after all. Sad.
Military Space
Some folks in France really want to participate in a Space War:
Dark’s flagship product, called Interceptor, represents a new approach to space defense
USSF also getting more aggressive in terms of counterspace. Including the formalities.
Also, I might need to merge this and the previous section, as Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein has been selected to oversee development of the Golden Dome.
Some new abbreviations:
NATO now is implementing two key initiatives: the “Allied Persistent Surveillance from Space or APSS,” program, and the Strategic Space Situational Awareness System,” known as 3SAS, he said.
Military Industry
More startups joining the struggle for solid rocket motor production: please welcome X-Bow Systems.
More relatively smaller players eyeing Golden Dome contracts: Rocket Lab buys Geost with this in mind.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
The biggest thing is this Joint statement by the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on Global Strategic Stability.
More nuclear signalling from France regarding extending their nuclear umbrella, without anything definite yet.
Belarus announced that the joint RU/BY Zapad-2025 exercise will be scaled down and moved deeper inside the country to make things less tense in the region.
Some serious nuclear flavour in the latest hostilities between India and Pakistan, but it deserves a separate mention and a pack of further reading, stay tuned.
Executive Secretary of the CTBTO Preparatory Commission Dr. Floyd visited Moscow and had some good conversations at the MFA, IMS facilities, as well with the academia.
Further reading (and listening)
Yours truly talking about all things strategic [In Russian]:
My interview about the Golden Dome [In Russian].
Lovely report by GAO on the project costs of the US nuclear forces
Great piece on the history and results of the Soviet-American arms control negotiations.
CBO report on launch costs for space interceptor deployment.
Fun graphics by DIA on missile threats for CONUS.
FAS, Russian Nuclear Forces, 2025.
Useful research on European military capabilities.
An article by MFA official about the Eurasian Security Architecture.
Interesting report about China, use of force in Space and deterrence.
Op-ed by NNSA official about B61-13 and further capabilities.
Great overview of the Golden Dome announcement.
Some updates from the US Air and Space force leadership.
Interesting take on LuA/LoW debate:
Russian thoughts on the Golden Dome [In Russian].
Very detailed UCS report on the Plutonium Pit Production in the US.
Some writing on the future arms control as seen from Russia.
Lots of thoughts about the US Counterforce capabilities and strategies.
Music
With the Golden Dome being the hottest topic, high time for INTERCEPTOR:
End Notes
Let’s say goodbye with this very specific vehicle.
As always, feedback most welcome.