STRATDELA #38
Still kicking
Strategic offensive weapons
Some Columbia SSBN updates:
B-52 will soon fly with a new radar, and second B-21 is already flying.
…and USAF continue to ask for MOAR Raiders.
New messaging on Sentinel:
“In some small cases, we may need to make purchases,” Gebara said. “But I believe building all new silos is actually not an extender of time and cost. It’s actually saving time and cost.”
New STRATCOM commander nominated: Navy Vice Adm. Richard Correll.
B-2, in the meantime, continues to develop anti-ship capabilities, now with QUICKSINK munitions.
B-52H participated in Cobra Warrior 25-2 exercise in the UK.
Not one or two, but four Trident-II SLBMs launched as a part of life extension program.
And one more STRATCOM exercise for September.
Next Russian State Armaments Programme will remain focused on strategic weapons, among other things. To quote Andrei Belousov, Minister of Defence:
The State Arms Programme is focused on strategic nuclear forces, space means, air defence equipment, electronic warfare systems, signal and control systems, unmanned and robotic systems, as well as artificial intelligence technologies.
China demonstrated its strategic triad: road-mobile and silo-based solid-fuel ICBMs (DF-61 and DF-31BJ), silo-based heavy/global liqued-fuel ICBM (DF-5C), air-launched aeroballistic missile (JL-1, previously known as CH-AS-X-13 or KF-21) and JL-3 SLBM. I’m thinking of preparing a Special on the whole Victory Day Parade.
The French formally begin works on the M51.4, next modernization of their SLBM. Yet another POKER exercise happened last week. Another noteworthy French thing - Rafale from nuclear squadron deployed to Poland to hunt for runaway drones.
Hyperhype
Russian Navy launched Tsirkon twice (against sea and land targets) during Zapad-2025 exercise, and some Kinzhal carrier flights happened over Barents sea as well.
A thing called Angry Tortoise is a good example of mixing existing capabilities to achieve new qualities.
Post-INF (and other long-range precision weapons)
UK wants something ballistic with 500+ km and calls it NIGHTFALL. MBDA might be a part of this project.
Japanese Type-12 missiles to be deployed by March 2026.
Everyone tries to make cheaper munitions, MBDA is no exception: Crossbow low-cost cruise missile. Looks kind of Iranian.
Typhon deployed to Japan. For exercises, for now.
Oreshnik “on its way to Belarus”, per Lukashenko, but still nowhere to be seen.
Early Warning and Missile Defense and Military Space
France and Germany are reportedly working on joint Early Warning system. Please share if you have more details, might prepare a Special issue on this matter.
More details emerge about possible participants in the Golden Dome project and their share of work: Anduril, Varda, SpaceX, LeoLabs.
People suddenly realize that there is already some military action in orbit.
“Aggressor” spacecraft pursued by SPACECOM, nice! And refueling as well, including orbital fuel depots.
German space leadership wants “self-protection” for their satellites.
Military AI
New section, hooray!
US Navy wants machine learning combat assistants on their submarines.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
The big thing: Vladimir Putin announced adherence to New START ceilings for at least one year after its expiry:
In order to prevent the emergence of a new strategic arms race and to preserve an acceptable degree of predictability and restraint, we consider it reasonable to maintain at this turbulent time the status quo established under New START. Accordingly, Russia is prepared to continue observing the treaty’s central quantitative restrictions for one year after February 5, 2026.
Following that date, based on a careful assessment of the situation, we will make a definite decision on whether to uphold these voluntary self-limitations. We believe that this measure is only feasible if the United States acts in a similar spirit and refrains from steps that would undermine or disrupt the existing balance of deterrence.
Silence on the US side, but it is a very important initiative.
Iranian nuclear issue, JCPOA, Snapback etc. are a serious problem. Note this official MFA statement. And of course read what Nicole Grajewski has to say on this issue:
There is a good chance that we are entering a world of parallel legal realities with regards to UNSC sanctions etc.
Chinese official media coverage of the strategic triad worth putting here as well:
China unveiled its land-, sea-, and air-based strategic forces as the nuclear triad for the first time in Wednesday’s V-Day military parade.
The triad included JingLei-1 air-based long-range missile, JuLang-3 submarine-launched intercontinental missile, DongFeng-61 land-based intercontinental missile, and new type DongFeng-31 land-based intercontinental missile.
The weapons are China’s strategic “ace” power to safeguard the country’s sovereignty and nation’s dignity.
MTCR is getting into more trouble, now the US is AGAIN reinterpreting its guidelines.
It remains to be seen how nuclear would be the new Pakistan/Saudi Arabia mutual defence agreement, but an important development anyway.
Further reading (and listening)
My remarks from the 12 Beijing Xiangshan Forum session on arms control
Good long story about B-1B evolution
Some points on Chinese nuclear dynamics and global arms race
Pakistan nuclear weapons, 2025
Interesting systematization of PLA parades over the years
Good piece on the US nuclear launch authority
Overview of the UA/UK Flamingo GLCM project
Hot take on the new Chinese hypersonic anti-ship missiles
Some good details about DSEI event
Primer on AI and NC3
GAO report on US ICBM modernization
Epic paper on the Golden Dome
Some ideas about future US strategic aviation
Quality paper on AI and nuclear non-proliferation
Great article on proliferation challenges
Last but definitely not least, great Substack on nuclear operations:
Music
The Living End released a new album, wonderful, as always.
End Notes
Some quality propaganda as a final point this time:
See you all soon!