STRATDELA #40
2026 is burning, and so are we.
SO MUCH STUFF already happened, and almost every day this year keeps delivering.
Not in a good way though. So, let’s go through some of the things that got into STRATDELA crosshairs. I will intentionally NOT focus on Israel and US strikes against Iran, and Iranian retaliation at this time.
Strategic offensive weapons
There are no formal limitations for Russian and US strategic forces, but no explicit decisions made so far. Still we need to watch this space.
Fight for MORE B-21 Raider bombers continues. No decisions on that, but the expansion of production capacity is already there.
USAF ready to re-convert all B-52H for nuclear missions and MIRV available ICBMs.
Columbia-class SSBN getting in better shape.
Sentinel continues restructuring, first “pad launch” test now expected in 2027.
First prototype Sentinel silo being built. And the missile itself seems capable of MIRV payload. The footprint continues to grow.
In the meantime, new nuclear bunker buster remains under development.
New Minuteman-III test launch, now with 2 (two) reentry vehicles.
B-2A, B-52H and B-1B pounding Middle East are nothing new, however the intensity is kind of remarkable. But probably I will write more on the strategic weapons related implications of the current conflict later and separately.
Nuclear Testing
This got interesting. Again.
Americans continue to claim that there was something detected by a station in Kazakhstan that amount to a concealed (through decoupling) test at Lop-Nur on 22.06.2020. CTBTO kind of disagrees and reminds everyone about verification mechanisms, should CTBT enter force.
More by Dr.Yeaw here.
And here is the report by the Russian Mission in Vienna on the same subject.
Hyperhype
Some news on UK hypersonic efforts, although 12 million GBP do not sound too impressive.
In the meantime, PLAN reportedly puts hypersonic missiles on non-nuclear submarines (stay tuned for more STRATDELA stuff on this topic).
Nice Dark Eagle photos got released…and removed:
One of my favourite rocket startups, Ursa Major, is moving forward with their own hypersonic project - HAVOC - employing Draper engine.
Hypersonix also quite active with their 3D-printed toys being part of HyCAT program involving HASTE test vehicle.
Post-INF (and other long-range precision weapons)
ELSA somewhat lives, at least in the form of 500 km “One Way Effector”.
More US INF-range weapons expected at the Philippines.
PrSM saw first combat action.
Early Warning and Missile Defense and Military Space
US Department of War SMM folks are in full overdrive:
Hegseth also repeats the classic ‘ultimate high ground’ tropes. Space Force is getting ready for offensive operations (and for more moneys).
Some folks are playing with the idea to put full-scale theater missile defense interceptors in space. What could possibly go wrong.
US Space Command clearly also very active in strikes against Iran.
France also prepares for a war in space.
Early Warning radar in Qatar got hit, in case you missed it.
Military AI
AI (and acquisition reform) once again said to be the major enabler of the Golden Dome.
Pentagon and Anthropic clash is all over the place, hard for me to add more substance. But still noteworthy. Especially that now everyone know the role that AI plays in the US strikes on Iran. And misses.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
Frist things first: Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Concerning the Expiration of the Russia-US New START Treaty
Scoop on possible agreement to comply with New START limits seems to be absolutely wrong, as DiNanno speech left not much to discuss on such possibility. Russian and Chinese responses basically sealed the current state of affairs. This by Sergey Ryabkov remains relevant: there are no negotiations on a treaty to replace New START, Russia will not agree to a treaty advantageous to the one side only, France and UK should be a part of the “hypothetical negotiations process”.
Still, the French were the funniest on New START expiry - not so much on other stuff.
French were rather active, with new speech by Macron on nuclear deterrence and yet another Nuclear Steering Group - now with the Germans.
Russian response can be found here. No surprises, and nothing to be happy about.
Personally, I find this the most important about the latest French announcements: a shift from nuclear-only deterrence to an approach involving non-nuclear capabilities (JEWEL, ESSI, ELSA included). As for the decision to increase stockpile - too many unknowns so far.
US still committed to extended nuclear deterrence in Europe, per Elbridge Colby. Japan was hosted for the regular extended deterrence dialogue as well.
The NATO High Level Group, the senior advisory board to NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), met in Brussels.
And one more quote by Colby:
I don’t think we plan to do a kind of formal nuclear posture review. I think the declaratory policy and so forth from the first Trump term was very good.
Further reading (and listening)
Good discussion on Post-New START environment:
My slides from the 64th ISODARCO Course on missile defense and technologies.
My comments on Post-New START
Marco Rubio on Arms Control:
Good LLNL report on Stockpile Stewardship and Nuclear Testing
Interesting interview with former deputy head of Novaya Zemlya test range on nuclear testing [In Russian]
Russian analytical take on post-New START era.
Slides from the Russian briefing on Space Monitoring and Situation Awareness
Solid backgrounder on AI in Chinese, Indian and US nuclear postures.
Good forecast on possible space warfighting
Assessments of NNSA Major Projects
Great collection regarding US STRATEGIC COMMAND ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS & LAWS OF ARMED CONFLICT
Podcast on all things strategic and nuclear with me
Quality paper on Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Strategic Stability
Music
Let’s listen to CARPENTER BRUT for a change.
End Notes
So, that’s it. Let’s begin again, and please do not shy away from reaching out and spreading the word.
Stay sane.
