STRATDELA #42
Global war(m/n)ing
We are well into the NPT RevCon, among other things. Still, missiles are flying (and not), deploying (and not), etc. Let’s recap some of the things that happened since STRATDELA #41.
Strategic offensive weapons
Norhtrop Grumman provided some updates on Sentinel ICBM program and provided a new photo of a three stage booster assembly:
Sentinel cost estimate expected in Summer.
Updates on B-21 emphasize fuel-efficency, flexibility and possible future upgrades. “Long-term global strike superiority”.
Works on the first B-52J with commercial engines to begin this year, with critical design review completed.
Ankara seems eager to join the ICBM club with Yildirimhan. Reportedly, testing planned in Somalia. The design seems strange, to say the least, and the missions are questionable as well. Although the idea to use it for military space payloads make sense, but let’s wait and see how this project will continue.
India tested another advanced Agni missile with MIRV capability - and on depressed trajectory.
Sadly, nothing new on long-expected ICBM and possibly SLBM tests in Russia.
Hyperhype
Blackbeard in da [USN] house, looks like we will see even more efforts in affordable hypersonic weapons. Rocket Lab cooperates with Anduril, providing HASTE services for future hypersonic tests.
Old good friend ARRW coming back from the dead. Good time to remind everyone about a relevant STRATDELA Special from early 2023. It already flies on B-1B as well, as expected.
Some updates on Glide Phase Interceptor: preliminary design review by 2028, and the split of work between USA and Japan is getting clarified.
By the way, 2027 might see some sort of US missile defense test against HGV-class target called Project Maverick.
Post-INF (and other long-range precision weapons)
PrSM stocks extensively used by the US to hit targets inside Iran - and, reportedly, there are plans to deploy Dark Eagle as well. PrSM Inc.4 planned to have 1000 km range.
France begins funding intermediate-range ballistic missile project, aiming for 2035 deployment.
MRC Typhon practiced live fires with Tomahawk during major Balikatan 2026 exercise at the Philippines. By the way, looks like it remained there since April 2024.
In Europe, reportedly, US decided not to deploy MDTF in Germany, while Berlin still trying to obtain Typhon for their own operations. Let’s see how it goes. Also, ELSA might be happy. Or sad.
Early Warning/Missile Defense/Military Space
Serious plans announced by AstroScale for 2027: multi-orbit satellite inspection operations.
A number of US Space Force bases selected to host nuclear microreactors. Such efforts might have long-term consequences in terms of nuclear power proliferation both on Earth and in Space.
Nice scheme on USSF capabilities.
New satellite designs for orbital warfare and dynamic space operations proposed by possible contractors. Simultaneously, Space Command works on warfighting models based on moving satellites.
Alleged Russian plans for nuclear-tipped ASAT became a basis for a tabletop exercise involving US allies and commercial contractors.
As expected, US official in charge of Golden Dome started calculating costs of deploying space-based interceptors and realized that it might be a bit too much.
Back to space, and even further: cislunar acquisition force deployed by the USSF.
Angara-1.2 delivered some military space payloads from Plesetsk.
And the US Space Command is concerned with ‘operationalization’ of the Russian ASAT capabilities.
In the meantime, France is looking into comprehensive missile defense capabilities as well:
Military Industry
Northrop Grumman and Hanwha engaged in collaborative effort to develop next generation of rocket artillery, further blurring lines between rockets and tactical missiles with AReS project.
Low-cost cruise missiles continue their development and in the near future will become a major factor for both offensive and defensive operations and planning.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
NPT RevCon is at full swing, and the best way to follow it is through regular RCW newsletters here. Will avoid making conclusions so far, but the expectations are not high.
NATO gathered in Istanbul for a nuclear symposium. Nuclear alliance should be ready to become nuclear target in its entirety. Deteriorating security environment, you know.
Reportedly, DPRK included in its constitution both the sole nuclear use authority of the supreme leader, as well as his/her death as condition fot the nuclear use. Well, it is hardly news essentially, but codification is always useful.
I really do not want to say anything about diplomacy over Iran and Ukraine, all this is rather depressing both in terms of substance and form.
Further reading
Interesting interview on broadband constellations for contested space
Epic report on the Cancelled WE-177 Replacement Programme, which sheds light on UK thinking about substrategic nukes
Sergey Ryabkov remarks on arms control and non-proliferation from April 16 at the Trialogue Club meeting
Good piece on AI/ML applications for military space operations
Yet another great piece of work by UNIDIR on nuclear risk reduction
Interview w/ Andrey Baklitskiy on the beginning of the NPT RevCon
My interview on the latest European nuclear developments [In Russian]
Great paper on the Turkish missile developments
Music
CANCER BATS is among my favorite bands from Canada, always happy to hear new music from these guys:
End Notes
That’s all for today. Have a good week, feel free to drop a message, and keep yourself hydrated during the hot season.