STRATDELA Issue #15
Strategic offensive weapons
First things first - let’s go strategic.
Most news are from the Far East though.
We saw some ICBM-related action at the recent parade in DPRK, with this wannabe-Topol’ being the most interesting one:
This does not seem like a working system so far though, but Kim knows how to surprise.
As for China, we’ve finally seen an official statement that they have more ground-based ICBM launcher than the US - which is not that surprising though. Again, the talk is about launchers, not missiles, both silo and mobile. My best guess would be that this development will be used as an argument for continued support of GBSD/Sentinel project, and I would not be surprised that given this yet another reported ‘gap’ people will once again start to lobby for MIRV.
A bit funny that this report was almost simultaneous with the regular MM-3 test launch…while B-2As remain grounded.
In Russia we are expecting some long-range missile action in late February based on local warnings from the military, might be Sarmat, or Bulava, or Yars, or whatever.
In other news, Dmitry Donskoy, the last of the Typhoon/Akula mega-SSBNs (used for tests for quite a while already), seems to be finally approaching its end.
#hyperhype
Gorshkov is having some fun at sea with electronic launches and arty fires, the major event everyone is looking forward to is the joint exercises with PLAN and South African Navy - which reportedly can include a live Tsirkon launch. Again, not that much, but highly symbolic. In the meantime, first CPS launch from Zumwalt is expected in 2025.
Reportedly, Makeyev (Sarmat designers) people continue working on air-breathing hypersonic vehicle and have achieved some progress. Not yet clear what would it be though, but might be a next gen payload for Sarmat. Or no.
Also, this stuff by the US CBO on hypersonic weapons and alternatives offers some important perspectives.
Space & Missile Defense
New troubles with Russian ISS-support spacecraft. Many people argue that probably those leakages might be a sign of some quality control issues here on Earth, but let’s wait for smth official. Space is hard, of course, but let’s hope things will get back to normal.
BTW, back to DPRK, this stuff by Maxar is impressive:
UN OEWG on reducing space threats was expected to be tough, but still there seems to be some positive results, or at least better understanding on what everyone is talking about.
Commercial space field also had some news, both in terms of greater SSA capabilities by operators and also in the development of the US Space Reserve Fleet concept.
More on both space and missile defenses in the section with links!
Arms Control, Diplomacy, Signalling
New START status/limbo remains the top priority.
I am still somewhat hopeful, but it indeed seems that both sides are kind of talking past each other.
The good news is that P5 had an expert meeting in Dubai. Not a dramatic change, but at least something more or less positive.
Also, not sure if it belongs to this section, but Iskander-M unit has been activated within BY armed forces.
Further reading and watching
January was quite active, lots of stuff with my involvement.
First things first - a reminder about the latest STRATDELA special about ARRW.
Big report on missile defense for Valdai, we’ve assembled a great team, follow research by my colleagues: The Shoot Down/Miss the Target Dilemma: The Evolution of Missile Defense and Its Implications for Arms Control. The launch event was fun as well, here’s a video.
We finally completed the long project with Deep Cuts people on transparency/ambiguity balance in the nuclear weapons domain, give this working paper a look, I believe this to be an important contribution to the field.
Another long-build, with my bros from IFSH we finally got our thing on remote verification published - and not just published, but published by the one and only Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
If you can understand Russian and/or believe in auto-translated subtitles, here are some of my recent appearances on video.
Big interview with RTVi (and a text version of some points)
Some stuff on Tsirkon and other fancy things for REN-Tv
Mezhdunarodnoye obozreniye episode, me speaking aаter 15th minute.
Discussion on Star Wars/SDI and current events hosted by MSU people for their Winter Space School.
Now some other stuff I want to draw your attention to.
A view from India on Outer Space Competition.
A European take on hypersonic weapons.
Important interview w/ Alexey Arbatov on current security and broader strategic stability issues.
UN OEWG on space threats documents section remains a crucial source for anyone working in the filed.
Music
Something truly beautiful by the unique Norwegian band LEPROUS this time.
End titles
That’s all for today, dear STRATDELA followers. Stay safe, stay sane!
As usual, spread the word, reach out, suggest papers for further reading section, etc., and don’t forget to follow this project on telegram.