STRATDELA Issue #17
Summer incoming.
Hi folks, spring was rather busy both personally and professionally, but we are still kicking. There have been some interesting news, statements and publications within my area of expertise, and I am happy to share those with you.
Strategic offensive weapons
We’ve seen new figures on US New START-covered weapons.
Here’s an updated scheme I’ve used to make twice a year:
Russian SRF continue training and rearmament, this year 7th GMD (Tver’ region) will complete switching to Yars road-mobile ICBM, and works continue for 13th and 62nd divisions (Avangard and Sarmat respectively).
BTW, some nice footage was released after Shoigu paid a visit to Kozelsk, 28th GMD.
Heavy bombers continue to strike targets in Ukraine, but also fly traditional ‘deterrent patrols’ in the North and in the East. More emphasis on dispersal and switching strike routes, as it seems.
By the way, I remain concerned with the strategic capabilities of the B-52H and Quickstrike-ER naval mine combo.
#Hyperhype
LRHW Dark Eagle finally caught by a satellite.
ICYMI, we’ve had a Special Issue on this beast.
In Russia, Kinzhal is seeing some action in Ukraine, with both failures and successes - as any weapon. I was astonished and depressed by some claims and threads on twitter with regard to that ‘Kinzhal vs Patriot’ thing, and will not boost those. But will publish something on this matter later this month.
In China DF-27 seems to become an operationally deployed thing rather soon, and while some writing on the matter looks not very credible (i.e. this SCMP piece), it demonstrates a trend in horizontal proliferation of hypersonic weapons and increase in their capabilities.
And don’t forget Iran, of course, who is also eager to join the hypersonic fun.
Early Warning, Missile Defense, Space
Getting US Space Command to run missile warning, missile defense and space domain awareness looks like an obvious thing, but it remains to be seen if there will be a rapid capability increase.
US-ROK-JP cooperation on sharing data to address DPRK missile launches is a big deal. Shared networks, shared sensors - this is a future, and a future that might lead to further concerns with regard to the survivability of strategic nuclear forces and deliverability of their warheads, including in China and in Russia. Effectively, we will definitely see more counterspace capabilities, for both soft and hard kills.
More active New Space participation in Defense was expected, and there are more and more examples, i.e. Maxar offering their smallsats, etc.
Diplomacy
Extended nuclear deterrence is a hot topic once again. There are similarities between some of the RU-BY and US-ROK arrangements, especially in the public domain. But the most interesting topic is a bit under the radar: the use of NNWS conventional forces as a support of the NWS nuclear operations. I believe that we see a change from ‘NWS providing nuclear umbrella for NNWS’ to ‘NNWS enhancing NWS regional nuclear capabilities’. SNOWCAT missions in NATO have been there, of course, but now we see a broader trend. AUKUS is also somewhat related.
For RU/US thing, latest statements and speeches by the US officials which are all over the media (I will add some links though) can be a basis of something good, but not in the immediate future.
Further reading
Big report on missile defense co-authored by me
Speech by General Bussiere, had of AFGSC
US response to the Russian New START suspension
Remarks by Jake Sullivan on arms control
Reporting on Russian reaction to the recent US statements in Vedomosti and Kommersant
Brief remarks by me on space and war
Wonderful paper by Konstantin Bogdanov on deterrence in the modern age
Overview of B-52H history by Alexander Yermakov
Music
QOTSA will roll out a new album soon, enjoy one of the singles.
End notes
Once again, I apologize for irregular posting of new issues and promise to change.
In the meantime, feel free to comment, criticize and reach out!