STRATDELA Issue #18
STRATDELA Issue #18
We are still strategic, and nuclear-related debate in Russia is rather heated
Strategic offensive weapons
Russian strategic/OSINT community noticed rather massive deployment of the US SSBNs to the Atlantic theatre over mid-June. There were some hysterical reactions by some people prone to panic (even linking it to the Prigozhin’s ‘mutiny’. no, really!). Pretty sure that it was not the first time, but probably we need to dive deeper (see what I did there) in the deterrent patrol practices of the US Navy, or even compare those practices through P5 nations. There might be even some room for transparency and risk reduction measures…
Also, B-2A Spirit is back to flying.
B-1B Lancer had some fun over the Nordic countries, Russian air defense followed with great interest.
By the way, one day we might have an international competition between ICBM TEL drivers…but only national at the moment. Yoshkar-Ola drivers are the best so far.
Extended nuclear deterrence
Some nukes for Su-25 and Iskander-M are probably already in Belarus. While Lukashenko tries to portray it as his sovereign capability, it is still pretty clear that any use will have to be based on decisions in Moscow. Still, nuclear umbrellas and nuclear alliances give some word to non-nuclear parties as well.
Poland is again very vocal in its demands for nuclear weapons stationed on their territory - now in response to the dynamics in Belarus. Well, we’ll see.
First SSGN already paid a visit to South Korea, SSBN is expected soon.
Also, I wonder if continued support for the N-SLCM by the US legislators might lead to those appearing on AUKUS submarines…more on this sometime later.
#Hyperhype
France finally tested the VMaX thing.
My guess would be that it can become a next-gen payload for the French SLBMs, although hard to rule out anything at this moment.
Iran is also almost there. Or here.
Some ongoing debates on the US ARRW and CPS programs with regard to the NDAA are interesting to follow, but probably let’s wait for the final decisions to be approved and signed.
Post-INF
MRC Typhon is kinda alive.
Soon we’ll see overseas deployment, first on the Pacific, later in Europe, although the former still might be prevented through the Russian moratorium initiative. By the way, I am thinking about a separate STRATDELA Special on this beastie, do we need it?
Early Warning, Missile Defense, Space
Fun to watch at the debate between the US Commands on who is responsible for what with regard to Early Warning and Missile Defense. This stuff happens in any bureaucracy, especially when THAT huge amounts of moneys are involved.
Some good details on the US breed of inspector satellites, namely GSSAP published here, as usual, main task is to get “tactical advantage over its adversaries”.
US Space Force is rather clear about their desired goals anyway: “to find, fix and deny any adversary capability to find and target US forces or allied forces”.
In the meantime, Russia and China held regular consultations on missile defense and space in Moscow. More on the cooperation in this fields can be found in this paper that I’ve already advertised in the previous STRATDELA issue.
Diplomacy
Looks like Russian MFA is getting more and more interested in unilateral parallel arms control-ish measures, those were specifically mentioned in a recent speech by Sergey Ryabkov (see below).
P5 had an expert meeting in Cairo. Good, and awesome reporting by Elena Chernenko, as always.
Arms Control Association continues to promote arms control diplomacy, and while currently the environment is sad, there are very realistic steps that can be taken.
Further reading
Long, detailed speech by S.Ryabkov at the PIR-Center summer school is a must-read.
As for a huge debate on preemptive nuclear use initiated by Sergei Karaganov, I suggest taking a look at these papers:
Nikita Degtyarev with an overview
There is more, but those are the ones I’ve liked the most.
Also, a book on information technologies and international security to which I’ve contributed several years ago finally got an English version.
Good academic stuff on possible European responses to the evolving regional nuclear dynamics by Ulrich Kuhn and Tim Thies.
Interesting article by Rose Gottemoeller on acknowledging Russian interests. It was noticed in Moscow, but the way.
Very frank call for developing US counterspace capabilities by The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.
Quality ELN/APLN paper on strategic risks.
Music
MAGGOT HEART is one awesome project by the one and only Linnéa Olsson, enjoy some noise.
End notes
Well, I’ve definitely missed some stuff.
The good news is that I’ve released it less than a month after the previous issue:)