STRATDELA Issue #20
Hi everyone, long time no see. Keep yourself safe and hydrated, let’s dive!
Strategic offensive weapons
Another Borei-A SSBN arrived to the Russian Pacific, Generalissimus Suvorov.
Welcome.
There is also a fresh photo of the Belgorod special purpose SSN, which will be (or already is) a Poseidon nuclear-powered UUV carrier.
We’ve spent some time waiting for test launches of SLBMs and ICBMs, but nothing so fat, despite regular NOTAMs and Cobra Ball flights. Let’s keep waiting.
In the meantime, Burevestnik completed his final successful test per Putin, however, zero footage released so far.
Sarmat keeps nearing operational status, first regiment (likely couple of silos plus a command post) will be activated before the year ends, but, again, fairly limited news. Only some footage from the Krasmash missile factory, which look a bit too cleaned up.
On the air leg, none other Kim Jong Un was shown a Kh-BD inside (or not) Tu-160 with a range of 6500 km.
In other places, our American partners continue to be very fond of the Bomber Task Force deployments and their unprecedented tempo.
By the way, here are some cool interactive graphics about B-21. And, as a brief reminder, we have a STRATDELA special about the Raider.
Columbia next gen SSBN made news due to the issues with the US Federal Budget, but in kind of a good way: “The last-second funding measure that will fund the government until mid-November secures $621 million to ensure the start of construction for the second Columbia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine but leaves several other programs in limbo.”
Still, we are likely to see some delays anyway.
Also, ICYMI, a dedicated STRATDELA special is available here.
Some fun data on Sentinel GBSD, future USAF ICBM:
450 Minutemen launch facilities are intended to be refurbished and get a Sentinel inside
First two launchers and a launch center will begin refurbishment at F.E. Warren, and they need "a missile silo a week to get to 450"
Sentinel is getting more and more interesting day by day. Should I prepare a special issue on this beast?
LRSO nuclear-tipped ALCM is progressing rapidly, still surprised that there are zero public photos of the thing.
Old good Minuteman III delivered 3xMIRV with some nice photos last month. Also, USAF walked an extra mile explaining notifications, good.
#Hyperhype and Post-INF
SM-6 launcher, that USN Mk70 thing, made its way to Europe.
Russian reaction seems a bit restrained, but it will hardly remain so once the permanent basing will begin. Again, there is a fresh STRATDELA special on all these new US GLCM launchers.
There seem to be some challenges with finding a place for MDTF, at least for the Pacific theatre. Probably with the missileers it is the hardest.
LRHW Dark Eagle failed to meet the FY2023 deployment milestone. Not surprised, although I still expect to see some live fire tests this calendar year.
For future reference, list of the USAF priorities for the hypersonic weapons development:
ground test capabilities
test aircraft
ranges
data infrastructure
people
In Russia, Zmeyevik hypersonic ground-launched intermediate-range [ASh]BM is reportedly put on hold.
Missile Defense and Military Space
Possible US/Australia integration in missile defense sounds fun and totally doable. Not sure Australia really needs it, but for the Age of the Great Power Competition it is quite a challenge to remain a bystander.
Nuclear-powered and propelled spacecraft are once again becoming a trendy thing, let’s see how DARPA will manage the JETSON project.
“…increasing intelligence and information sharing, solidifying a standardized multinational command and control structure, and expanding mission sets” sounds like a great idea for a multinational space exercise, especially for those not involved, if you know what I mean.
Especially given the rapid development of more capable satellites.
Also, please welcome: "... the name (of Japan’s air force) will be changed to Air and Space Self-Defense Force".
Some fresh data on the Russian Space forces:
2023: 1500+ launches of foreign and Russian ballistic missiles and space rockets detected, launch of 2274+ spacecraft monitored.
"prediction and monitoring of the termination of the ballistic existence" of ~450 space objects ensured, 3 dangerous approaches between space objects and Russian spacecraft issued. 3 military spacecraft launched.
Construction of two new Early Warning radar stations ongoing in the Komi Republic and Murmansk Region.
Work continued on creation of next-gen ground-based space control facilities (SSA/SDA).
By 2025, 12+ new optical-electronic and radio-technical stations to be deployed.
Arms control, Diplomacy, Signalling
Putin was rather calm on nuclear issues at Valdai despite all the crazy talk in the Russian media. Good. Doctrine remains the same.
However, CTBT will be de-ratified by Russia, but all the cooperation with CTBTO, IMS, and the moratorium, stand firm so far.
Steadfast Noon is a go, probably we might see Grom-2023 soon.
Lots of statements in the First Committee, probably will try to cover them separately, although definitely no breakthroughs.
Further reading (and watching)
Short piece on the US nuclear weapons reportedly coming back to UK [In Russian]
Yours truly about future of the P5 under Russian chairmanship.
Good report by GAO on Nuclear arms control.
Interesting IISS research on missiles in Europe (I am still a fan of the Missile Dialogue Initiative btw)
Kind of provocative piece in NATO Review.
Some thoughts on nuclear messaging and nuclear escalation by me. [In Russian]
Video of the awesome UNIDIR Outer Space Security Conference, Panel IV with my participation:
(but watch other sessions as well, it was cool!)
My remarks in written form are available here.
Strategic Posture Review, hooray. And some grilling by FAS. Global Times not impressed. More on this later, watch this space.
Good to read it together with this by Glaser, Acton and Fetter.
Another good piece about missile defense by a Russian scholar.
Henry Kissinger and AI. No, really.
Music
THE HIVES - The Bomb. Yes, this is the song.
Final notes
Thanks for reading and following. I would really love some feedback though!