STRATDELA Issue #21
November Rain
Hi folks, I’m back, hope you’ll enjoy this issue.
Strategic offensive weapons
Lots of stuff happened since previous issue.
Most importantly (as expected) we’ve seen a major Russian strategic forces exercise, however its scope was fairly limited: Yars, Sineva, some Bears. Notable thing - the scenario specifically focused on massive retaliatory strike. The exercise itself is as routine as such a thing can be.
After that, there was a Bulava launch from yet another Borei-A entering service (Imperator Aleksandr Tretii).
Still waiting for that Sarmat, if you know what I mean. Not sure if there were explicitly failed tests, but this might be possible. Of course, more intensive testing would be a welcome development, but pretty sure eventually we’ll get there, and some sort of IOC will probably be declared next month anyway. Some good research by FAS team can be found here.
Avangard HGV-tipped ICBM also continued at the traditional Dombarovsky place.
In the US there was a failed Minuteman III test.
Well, probably this is also normal for such a venerable weapon. However, it seems, there will be a push towards faster delivery of the Sentinel ICBM. Contract on Mk21A RV (a low technical risk and affordable) awarded.
Columbia SSBN is again expected to dramatically exceed budget. No surprises here.
Not only strategic, but now we know that there will be a B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb.
BTW, cool photo of a nuclear squadron pilot from the Netherlands:
Also some sort of Chinese and French ICBM and SLBM tests are expected, let’s wait and see what they will show us. British Trident launch in the Atlantic has been suggested as well.
#Hyperhype
ARRW testing continues despite the fact that the program itself is more or less shelved. Understandable. More tests are expected before the year ends.
LRHW Dark Eagle test launch was once again cancelled. The NOTAMs etc. were pretty fancy…
On the Russian side of things, now we have one more source claiming that now it is possible to load flight data into Kinzhal hypersonic missile while its carrier aircraft (MiG-31K/I) is in air. Previously this might have been a ground-only procedure. Several years ago there was a release by MoD mentioning Coot-A (Il-20M) recon aircraft capability to feed targeting data directly to Kinzhal weapon system.
Missile Defense and Military Space
Next Generation Interceptor will soon take its form, with deliveries around FY 2027 (what a year it will be!).
US Space Force released an unclassified strategic document, good coverage available here.
"We must be prepared to deny a potential adversary's use of space systems to monitor, track, and enable attack of U.S., Allied and partners' military forces."
And here’s more on this document, with these great quotes:
“Direct capabilities are fires which impact an adversary. Enabling capabilities do not inflict harm but serve as a force multiplier for friendly forces and support the potential of other instruments of national power. … The key discriminator between direct and enabling capabilities is whether it can impose a cost or not. If it does, it is a direct capability.”
“We really, really struggled to to be able to measure when you think you have space superiority,” Shaw said. “And we realized that … if the president ever said, ‘So, do you have space superiority?’ we’d have a hard time answering that question.”
Anyway, I’d really love to see something like Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Air-Space Defence.
By the way, now there is some cool FOIA’d footage of the Burnt Frost’08.
More fun on the Orbit with maneuvering satellites detected - and by non-state actors, it seems.
More Russian military payload has been delivered to space. Likely another Lotos-S recon satellite.
New details on the US missile warning/missile tracking constellation.
The first nine satellites of a medium Earth orbit (MEO) missile-warning and missile-tracking constellation, called Epoch 1, are projected to launch in 2027. A second procurement of 18 satellites, called Epoch 2, will follow two to three years later, Bogstie said Oct. 19 at the MilSat Symposium in Mountain View, California.
“We are building a multi-layered sensor satellite network in both higher and lower MEO orbits, designed to sense a variety of missile threats, including the very fast, very dim hypersonic glide vehicles,” she said.
Overall, the US Space Force continues to take over all space-related missions. Again, expected, but also I can imagine some issues.
Arms control, Diplomacy, Signalling
There has been some discussion about new (or re-painted) numbers on Russian Heavy Bombers (Pavel Podvig and Piotr Butowski noticed that stuff), which might be somewhat conflicting with what used to be New START practices.
CTBT is de-ratified by Russia, putting us on the same page as the US and China. Fun fact: the importance of CTBT to the US is somewhat exemplified by the fact that the relevant CRS report was updated in 2016 for the last time.
Much hyped US-CN “arms control” talks hardly brought anything new, but still good that those two are talking. No Chinese release so far though.
In the meantime, Zhou Youxia, deputy CMC chief, visited Moscow, and Putin said some interesting stuff, mentioning military-technical cooperation in high orbits and advanced weapons.
Russia acknowledges the need for nuclear arms control with the US, but the conditions are not ripe. Now there are some exchanges via Kommersant newspaper: Pranay Vaddi, Sergey Ryabkov.
Further reading (and watching)
Some reflections on Russia de-ratifying CTBT assembled by the APLN.
Cool stuff on remote monitoring and verification in the Nature.
Another epic work by Tracy and Wright trying to curb the #hyperhype.
Good explainer on Russian Strategic Forces Exercises [In Russian].
Commentary on the US Strategic Posture Commission report by an IMEMO colleague, and also on B61-13 by the same expert [In Russian]
Footage of my remarks and General Esin’s comments on the issue of nuclear weapons and military-political relations from Ogarkov Readings [In Russian].
A paper on the evolution and perspectives of the heavy bomber role for deterrence, warfighting and arms control [In Russian].
My article "Russia’s vision for a great power rivalry in space" for Journal of Space Safety Engineering is available online for some time.
Cool deep dive in scramjet fuels (I’d like to know more about solid and paste though).
Fresh overview of nuclear weapons sharing.
Great reporting on the latest UN space security efforts (two OEWGs, etc.)
First Committee Monitor is a must-read.
Nice infographics on TPNW in the Pacific.
Good stuff on the Indian space policy.
Interesting perspectives on hypersonic weapons and nuclear deterrence from the US military.
Wonderful working paper on NRRCs.
Music
Let’s go with some brutal martial black metal this time.
Final notes
Thanks for reading, spread the word and stay with us!
PS almost forgot:
PIR Center is launching an educational online course on nuclear nonproliferation and arms control:
"The online course will be delivered in e-learning mode exclusively in English for a total duration of 16 hours.
Video lectures as well as literature and sources for self-study will be posted on the PIR Center’s research and education platform NONPROLIFERATION.WORLD. They will be available for viewing at any time, but strictly in the period from November 13 to December 3, 2023.
Those wishing to apply for an online course should: REGISTER via the link .
Applications for the online course will be accepted until November 10, 2023."