STRATDELA Issue #22

Ho-ho-ho, seasons' greetings, etc.

Dec 19, 2023

Strategic offensive weapons

We’ve had a pack of news and reports on the Russian side of things, due to annual stuff: Strategic Rocket Forces day and the Defense Ministry Board meeting.

I will unpack the details in a special issue later this month, but here are several takeaways:

Topol’ road-mobile ICBM is history, we have Yars everywhere now, with a notable exception of two Topol’-M missile regiments you know where, and silo version of it in Tatischevo. Those will be replaced a bit later. Next-gen solid-fuel ICBMs of similar class are in the works, fancy payloads possible.
Avangard initial deployment (two regiments at Dombarovsky) completed (or almost completed).
Sarmat…it’s complicated. Probably some sort of experimental battle duty will be declared before 2023 ends, but 2024 will definitely see more testing. Including Akvatoriya.
“The infrastructure for the Burevestnik strategic system with unlimited range nuclear cruise missiles and Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle carriers is being built at an accelerated pace.”

BTW, this weekend we might hear more on the Long-Range Aviation plans and achievements. PAK-DA nowhere to be seen (while some testing facilities are in the works), but we have +4 Tu-160M this year, and two more expected in 2024. And we continue to fly together with the Chinese from time to time.

There seem to be some issues with the US Sentinel next-gen ICBM (previously known as GBSD), although I have no doubts that it will be ready eventually, and the throw-weight will allow a lot of interesting options. Lots to be done on the infrastructure side of things too.

B-21 hype is everywhere now, what a language:

"...the B-21 will be the only bomber that can perform direct attacks on targets deep inside China and Russia and could be used to clear a path through enemy air defenses for other aircraft or to attack Chinese ships in a Taiwan scenario..."
"...A sufficient number of B-21s will “help ensure the health of the US alliance relationships for the next several decades.”

That will go well with Russia, China…and probably US allies as well.

B-2 ended up on Fairford, allegedly due to some issues with aerial refuelling.

Now some stuff about the British nukes.

First, we’ve learned about rather impressive plans for a new plutonium manufacturing facility known as Project Aurora.

Second, there might be some problems with Vanguard SSBN, loading of SLBMs, etc…let’s wait. However, UK official confirmed they’ve nearly lost one of their SSBNs some time ago.

BTW, the French did succesfuly test a M51.3 SLBM after all in November.

PS, ICYMI, SNOWCAT missions are actually called CSNO (Conventional Support of Nuclear Operations) these days.

And new tactical nukes are appearing in Europe. And their carriers, F-16s, might appear in Ukraine, which can lead to some serious horizontal escalation.

#Hyperhype and Post-INF

More private companies are getting involved in the US hypersonic efforts:

DIU’s payload will be scramjet-powered hypersonic vehicle made by the Australian company Hypersonix. The 660-pound drone is about 9.8-foot-long and has a 3D-printed airframe.

Ongoing developments for the detonating air-breathing propulsion are very interesting.

PrSM is not often mentioned here, but I consider it highly relevant both in terms of post-INF development and hypersonic platforms fielding, so the progress in its development, delivery (and future modernization) is very important to follow. Calls for its deployment in some sensitive areas are also…intriguing.

Typhon also nearing deployment:

“We have tested [Typhon] and we have a battery, or two of them today”
“In ‘24, we intend to deploy that system in the region,” he added. “I’m not going to say where and when, but I will just say that we will deploy them in the region.”

Don’t forget, we have a STRATDELA Special exactly about this sort of things.

LRHW Dark Eagle still has problems - mechanical ones, you know. And ARRW is gone.

Also, as mentioned above, Avangard (definitely not intermediate-range, but very hypersonic) is deployed according to initial plans of two regiments with a total of a dozen intercontinental nuclear-tipped HGVs.

By the way, we have kind of a proof that MiG-31 can land with a Kinzhal still not launched:

Kinzhal and Tsirkon production to be increased next year.

And don’t forget - Iran is also eager to join the party.

Missile Defense and Military Space

New X-37B mission has been postponed several times, now the date is December 28th.

Anyhow, USSF-52 apart from first launch on Falcon Heavy will “include operating the reusable spaceplane in new orbital regimes, experimenting with future space domain awareness technologies, and investigating the radiation effects on materials provided by NASA.”

Space Force also gets new commercial partners on board to work with simulations and visualizations. And acknowledges involvement in ongoing military conflicts.

Also, Space Forces-Space. And crazy ideas on how to deter through encirclement.

In the meantime, Chinese spaceplane is having fun on-orbit deploying stuff that emits radio waves.

Arrow-3 got its first operational intercept over the Red Sea (although Houthis are effectively demonstrating the capability to overwhelm air/missile defenses, however without any hits on surface naval assets so far).

US Army continues to improve missile defences: LTAMDS, ICBS, this kind of stuff.

Latest test of the GBI vs IRBM-class target was successful, and interesting to watch.

Arms Сontrol, Diplomacy, Signalling

US-China leaders’ meeting included some nuclear and arms control-ish stuff, but the prospects for breakthrough are hardly seen anywhere.

Not sure if CTBT belongs here, but Russia completed a national IMS segment.

And, of course, this from Putin:

"Given the changing nature of military threats and the emergence of new military and political risks, the role of the nuclear triad, which ensures the balance of power, the strategic balance of power in the world, has significantly increased.”

Music

PLANET B is a very interesting project:

Final notes

Dear Readers, please send me your reflections on what you see on STRATDELA, what you would like to see, and what is not interesting at all. I value your feedback very much!

I hope to send some good specials before the year ends, stay tuned:)

Also, for daily links to all things strategic, nice photos and cool videos - give STRATDELA a follow on telegram as well.

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