STRATDELA Issue #24
First 2024 Issue
Okay, it took a while, but I’ve managed to make it a January issue:)
Strategic offensive weapons
Sarmat heavy silo-based ICBM and Tu-160M heavy supersonic bomber among the main priorities for 2024, and the construction work for the deployment of the former is reportedly complete.
Knyaz Pozharsky Borei-A SSBN to be floated out in a few days.
B-2s spent some quality time with Red Flag, “training against scenarios involving a contested, degraded, and operationally limited environment”.
In the meantime, B-21 continue testing and begins production.
Sentinel ICBM turned out much more expensive than expected, but not much surprises here. Money will probably be found anyway.
We all had fun with those reports about issues in the PLARF (silo lids not opening, water-fueled ICBMs…), but the story about cooking hot pot using solid fuel is my favourite. Anyway, of course there are issues, but every major military has those. Demonstrating DF-41 flight in 4K would not hurt though;)
Lots of DPRK stuff, including but not limited to the demonstration of industrial capacity.
…and lots of cruise missile launches.
#Hyperhype
Pakistan wants to join the party, although questions about the mentioned air-launched capability remain.
Post-INF
Second Typhon battery activated at JBLM.
Missile defense
Lockheed Martin plans to integrate all the things, this time PAC-3 MSE with Aegis SPY-1 radars.
S-500 air/missile/space defense system among the Russian MoD main priorities for 2024.
Military space
Lots of stuff continue to surface about future trends in the US Space Force, including “dynamic space operations” and ISR to track moving terrestrial targets, And fire control! Of course, all this is done to achieve nothing less than superiority, as well as to "secure cislunar space and the moon".
Private businesses are getting more and more on board also, from spaceport IT infrastructure to integration of legacy and future Early Warning capabilities.
Still, some people argue that in-house capabilities (including launch services) should be pursued actively. And do not forget AI!
Responsive space is being discussed as well.
In Russia, we have some figures:
2023 - 7 launches of Soyuz launch vehicles with MoD payloads (imaging, detection, geolocation)
2024 (planned) - 18 launches with military payloads
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
Some public exchanges happened on the possibility of future arms control and strategic stability talks between Russia and the US. Nothing positive so far though. Everything boiled down in this MFA comment [In Russian]:
Washington's toxic response once again confirms that we are right to stand firm in defending Russia's interests.
Of course, there have been other comments by some officials, which I would prefer to ignore.
Further reading and watching
An interesting perspective on why building WS3 nuclear weapons storage facilities might be a good idea for the US allies
Russian missiles in 2023 overview [In Russian]
Detailed paper on how Australia should support the US nuclear operations on the Pacific
Report on how the US will secure cislunar space
Coverage of Russian and American officials talking on arms control futures [In Russian]
More missiles in the Asia-Pacific analysis
Ryabkov interview, including non-targeting, Lloyd Austin in hospital, New START ceilings and, well, Sarmat.
Overview of Space Force plans for 2024
Overview of Pentagon and future satellite communications
Somewhat provocative take on conventional arms control failures leading to warfighting Europe
Opinion piece on why the US still needs Sentinel ICBM, with a good quote:
Ironically, if strategic deterrents are effective, most people will never know they exist.
Somewhat overhyped take on the PLA space surveillance and tracking capabilities (imagine how similar US capabilities are seen from Moscow and Beijing…)
Good piece on regionally destabilizing actions of the Australian government looking for security
Heritage Foundation report on the US military power is always interesting, but also full of questionable data
Fun report on space competition
Brief piece on why PLARF capabilities are still important
Music
NEW MODEL ARMY continues releasing perfect albums. Enjoy!
End Notes
That’s all for today, see you in mid-February.
Also, I really would like some feedback, so do not hesitate!
apology for the amateur question: Do we have reliable info on WMDs intended for deployment in Poland? 2023 I believe you mentioned "deterrence" forces planned.