Hi everyone, hope you’ve managed to survive this winter. Lots of stuff had happened, and also brace yourselves for yet another Russian Presidential Address.
Strategic offensive weapons
Knyaz Pozhasrky Borei-A SSBN has been floated out - 5th 955A, 8th in the family.
We’ve seen relatively lots of action from Bears and Blackjacks in the Arctic region, and, of course, some Blackjacks were shown to Putin while he was in Kazan. He even flew in one of those.
In the US, some data suggests that new LRSO strategic air-launched cruise missile might be somewhat related to the untimely retired ACM due to plans to use SUU-72 pylons, that will be renamed SUU-103. Also, the rotary launcher will be called Nuclear Rotary Launcher (NRL), which might be useful for verification, in case we will have any in the future.
Reportedly, the buys for the LRSO might be increased beyond 1087 missiles.
There has been some updates on B-52 getting new engines, etc.:
The first two test B-52s will be modified at Boeing’s San Antonio, Texas facility beginning in 2026. It will take a few years to upgrade these bombers for the first time, Cleaver said, and ground and flight tests will go from late 2028 to 2031.
For the GBSD program, USAF plans to establish a 2-star general officer as the Program Executive Officer for Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.
British issues with Trident-II SLBM test launches are becoming a new normal, which is a bit strange. However, the related comments are even curiouser:
The fault was specific to the test kit and that the launch would have likely been successful if it had occurred out on a patrol, using a real nuclear warhead, according to the source.
Or this:
On this occasion, an anomaly did occur, but it was event specific and there are no implications for the reliability of the wider Trident missile systems and stockpiles. Nor are there any implications for our ability to fire our nuclear weapons, should the circumstances arise in which we need to do so.
I mean, there are always problems with military hardware, and officials trying to downplay the implications is a normal situation, but still…
#Hyperhype
Looks like ARRW might still have a chance to enter service eventually.
Mayhem project, in its turn, seem to have some issues in moving to the next phase. Although it definitely provided a lot of useful data.
You might also have seen reports about Tsirkon being used against targets in Ukraine, but for me there are still more questions than answers, so no analysis at the moment.
Missile defense
Both teams (Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin/Aerojet Rocketdyne) passed their preliminary design reviews, and now the competition for the Next Generation Interceptor at the critical design review stage.
first set of NGI solid rocket motor cases by NG
Donald Trump had something to say on missile defenses (and also military space) as well:
You know, Reagan proposed that many years ago, Star Wars. He proposed it many, many years ago. But at that time, there was no technology. It was just, like, it looked good. But we have unbelievable technology. We should have then.
Here one can find some cool data about costs of air and missile defense interceptors by the way.
HBTSS is mentioned in the next section, but here’s a link to a very important story about using AI to actually detect hypersonic missiles.
Turns out some time ago in Russia there was some sort of S-500 missile defense test involving liquid fuel SLBM launch from Laptev sea to Chizha range.
Military space
Contrary to some previous reports, Chinese spaceplane still hasn’t deployed any smallsats or anything. Sorry for the confusion. Anyway, this spacecraft is rather active in orbit.
Probably a very important development:
“Aalyria’s Spacetime network orchestration software platform was used to operate a multi-vendor, multi-operator, multi-orbit SATCOM network across secure Department of Defense (DoD) and multiple commercial provider locations,” the company said in a press release today. The satellites were linked to ground stations, receivers and airborne platforms.
Given the number and variety of both space services providers and their users, might be a cool tool to make the most of the existing and future infrastructure.
In the meantime, USAF and USSF are not really consistent in what they want to achieve with reform to adapt to the great power competition: is it "maintain superiority", "ensure continued supremacy" or "ability to stay competitive"?
USSF launched a lot of cool, yet sometimes undisclosed stuff over February, including the Tranche 0 of the HBTSS.
Space-based replacement for JSTARS, Ground Moving Target Indicator (GMTI), is under development. I can imagine the reaction to it being deployed…
Of course the most interesting recent stuff in military space have been related to the USIC freaking out about alleged Russian plans to deploy a nuclear on-orbit ASAT capability.
Idea of outsourcing some of the military space operations is interesting, and I can easily imagine a future with private space military companies.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
Looks like South Korea is now very active in signalling absence of desire to get nukes.
Also, in space domain, USSF is both interested in hotlines with China and prevention of China “catching up”. Well, essentially, this is exactly the problem with the US way of risk reduction.
Something semi-positive about possible engagement with the US was said in Kremlin this week, with relation to all that space nuke stuff:
As for strategic stability, we never refused to talk about it either. Of course, it is impossible to reconcile the calls by the United States and the West for Russia’s strategic defeat with claims about their desire to hold strategic stability talks with us, as if these two issues were not interconnected. If they want to inflict a strategic defeat on us, we must reconsider the meaning of strategic stability for our country.
In other words, we do not reject any ideas; we do not refuse to discuss anything. But we need to understand what they want. They usually want to achieve unilateral advantages. They will not succeed. Nevertheless, contacts are possible, of course, at the level of the Defence Ministry and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Looks like some quite diplomacy might have happened, although it is no longer a secret. Ushakov-Sullivan, Burns-Naryshkin.
Further reading and watching
2023 Report to Congress on Implementation of the New START Treaty.
Navigating the nuclear abyss paper includes some good thoughts:
…at some point, adding more nuclear weapons while the other side does the same increases costs and risks but does not enhance security.
More points about Sentinel ICBM costs and value. Also this by FAS.
Fascinating story about a yet another hunt for the X-37B.
Discussions about Eurodeterrent, you know, Atombomben und Atomwaffen, are heating up.
Good argument that the nuclear arms race actually never ended.
Great story about life aboard a boomer. With really, really cool photos.
Journal article about Chinese nuclear forces, in Russian.
My interview on nukes in Europe and nukes in Outer Space, in Russian.
Music
Borknagar released an awesome album.
End Notes
Take a look at a nuclear-tipped depth charge.
Story is here.
Stay safe, feel free to comment, and let’s keep in touch!