Hi folks, here’s what happened in the strategic domain over last month or so - and what I personally find interesting. As always, feel free to send me stuff I might have missed, and also follow my telegram channel.
Strategic offensive weapons
While GBSD is getting delayed, Boeing got a contract to maintain Minuteman III. Good for them. Still, sentinel also have some progress - more static fire tests.
US STRATCOM seems open to MIRV. Again.
Yars ICBM launchers are rolling here and there, some even made its way to Moscow suburbs (for the Victory Parade). Regular stuff, nothing to see here.
One Yars launched from Plesetsk to Kura, also nothing uncommon.
Another Sarmat test carried out/cancelled/failed.
Bears routinely fly to Alaska, and NORAD is not happy. And waits for the Chinese.
B-21 is “first sixth-gen aircraft”.
New British warhead got a name: The Replacement Warhead Programme has been designated the A21/Mk7 (also known as Astraea). The development efforts will involve EPURE facility. And here’s how it will be tested.
Not exactly strategic, but F-35A is nuclear-certified now. Also, some B-1Bs are getting back from their graves.
#Hyperhype
Fun times with ARRW at Guam. Great final ride for the beast, let’s see what will be next for it.
Talon-A might speed things up with testing.
In the meantime, MiG-31I carried out patrols over Baltic and Caspian seas. (and continuously used against targets in Ukraine, as well as Tsirkon - from undisclosed launchers).
US Navy got tired of US Army messing with their joint effort and will have a test launch of their own.
Kim launched his hypersonic weapon.
This does not look like something that does perform the way it is being described, at least for now. But I might be wrong.
Post-INF
With new multi-year contracts for Tomahawk for the Army MRC, how brutal the interservice competition for Tomahawk will become eventually with Navy and Marine Corps having their own launchers and demands.
And the first MRC Typhon overseas deployment goes to…Philippines! Temporary, of course, but anyway, big deal, both for 1st MDTF and for the PLARF.
Missile defense
Some people make arguments that US missile defenses might help vis-a-vis Russia and China. Well, I have some bad news…
Future Japanese surface combatants seem to be an extremely valuable asset for missile defense missions.
Military space
Space-based tactical ISR is quite complicated - including on the institutional level.
DPRK also can do some tricks with satellites, as it turns out.
UMBRA has shown pretty cool SAR stuff, and asks for military missions (and moneys).
On-orbit servicing mission planned for 2025 - with new payload for existing spacecraft.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
P5/N5 meeting took place in Riyadh on 29.02.2024, just in case.
Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, said some stuff about nuclear weapons:
"All discussions about nuclear war, which are now very numerous in the West <...>, are extremely irresponsible. And it is extremely dangerous in that there is a routinization of this topic." As for Moscow, everything is laid out "in the relevant doctrine": "If something threatens the existence of our country, that's when nuclear weapons will be used." Russia and the United States, as possessors of the largest arsenals of nuclear weapons, are obliged to ensure strategic stability: "Only our two countries can do this".
Putin himself also talked a lot about nukes, including this: “Weapons exist to be used. We have our own principles; what do they say? That we are ready to use weapons, including the ones you have just mentioned, when it is about the existence of the Russian state, about harming our sovereignty and independence. We have everything spelled out in our Strategy. We have not changed it.”
Qatar joined the HCoC, hooray!
Also some French signalling: tritium production, exercises, etc.
Further reading and watching
Story about those days when the US deployed nuclear-tipped counterspace weapons.
Great video about HBTSS.
Putin’s Address to the Federal Assembly (superweapons and space nukes included)
Fantastic volume about Germany and Nuclear weapons.
Free online course on all thing arms control and non-proliferation.
Russian Nuclear Weapons 2024 by your regular suspects (we’ve head a Special about it as well)
STRATDELA Special about UK-FR Teutates nuclear weapons cooperation.
Interesting overview of nuclear testing.
Cool overview of all things military/commercial space.
Extreme counter-hyperhype.
Statements by US military officials on hypersonic weapons.
Overview of the DPRK nuclear strategy.
My short essay on strategic stability.
Article about problems with rocket motor production.
Nuclear deterrence radicals exist everywhere.
My review of March 1st weapons [in Russian].
Good argument that militarization of space is also a problem, not only weaponization.
Fresh edition of the Global Counterspace Capabilities report.
US DoD Commercial Space Integration Strategy.
Great stuff on Behavioural Arms Control.
Music
MIDNIGHT with a new song about Nuclear Savior:
End Notes
That’s all for now. Hope you’ll enjoy, and share your emotions!:)