STRATDELA Issue #27
Hot summer, hot takes
Hello dear subscribers, let’s get back into business.
Strategic offensive weapons
Bulava SLBM formally finally fully accepted into service in May 2024. Hooray!
Upgraded ASMP-A supersonic cruise missile was expected given the current level of French nuclear saber-rattling messaging.
Nor sure everyone will agree that JASSM-ER in Poland can be labeled strategic, but let’s leave those here for a while. With targeting balloons! BTW JASSM-ER are coming to Japan as well.
B-52s flew over Baltic, traditional stuff.
Russian Yars road-mobile ICBMs and heavy bombers are also having some fun, summer training period, you know.
The US launched some Minutemen, as well as tested GBSD Mk21A reentry vehicle. GBSD itself is a mess, but not that many people care.
ROK Strategic Command also belongs to this section, I suppose.
B-21 is also becoming more expensive.
#Hyperhype
Turns out US hypersonic AShM HALO will have assorted basing modes.
US Army/Navy, or rather Navy/Army test of LRHW/CPS HGV-tipped intermediate-range missile finally happened.
Post-INF
USMC uncrewed launcher is getting more and more publicity, but clearly those are not he most interesting things these days.
Typhon found on Philippines:
BTW, here are some launch photos:
Lots of news on Euro-GLCM over last several months, will write a STRATDELA special on possible options (with “grounded MdCN” clearly the most probable one), stay tuned.
Production and deployment of Russian INF-range weapons are actively discussed.
And, you all know it, Typhon and Dark Eagle are coming to Germany in 2026.
Missile defense
Demand for theater missile defense is growing, good Reuters report on this topic. Facts on the ground might be different and nuanced, but the trend is real. And US regional allies and partners are very important players. Involving more contractors and using more production facilities will be something seen more and more.
As expected, Japan is heavily involved in advanced missile defense projects, now with the Glide Phase Interceptor - contract expected in March 2025.
The US East Coast GMD site still debated.
Military space
Story about alleged Russian nuclear-powered ASAT remains rather strange, but let’s remember the name Cosmos-2553, as well as the discussions at the UN Security Council. Not that any significant progress has been achieved so far.
First SDA “FOO Fighter” fire control counter-HGV (and other “advanced missile threats”) satellites developed by Millennium Space Systems for SDA as part of PWSA are expected in 2027.
Cosmos-2576 (launched in May) is allegedly having some fun with yet another Keyhole. More information here.
Next generation NRO satellites launched.
NATO launched a new thing called The Alliance Persistent Surveillance from Space (APSS) programme. Well, it was expected rather sooner than later, and it will make counterspace operations even more important for those who are labeled NATO adversaries and competitors.
European bodyguard satellites, what can possibly go wrong?
Ground Station security is very important for space, but it is worth to regularly remind everyone.
HBTSS reportedly tested, reportedly used a hypersonic target by Kratos, Erinyes vehicle.
BRICS supports PAROS, OST, and also kinda PPWT and TCBMs.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
The biggest signal had been the Russian NSNW exercise, which was announced for the Southern Military District specifically, but than Belarussian troops and Leningrad Military District got involved as well. We’ve seen Iskander-M in all three “regions”, as well as 12 Main Directorate operations, Su-25s in Belarus, Tu-22M3 and MiG-31I in Southern MD and some corvettes with nuclear-tipped AShMs in the Baltic. All photos, videos and comments are available in our telegram channel. So far the exercise seems completed.
Not sure if subcritical experiments belong to this section, but anyway, NNSA increased the frequency of these things.
Arms Control is also alive in some parts of the world: in May there was a regular meeting on fulfillment of Shanghai and Moscow treaties.
Putin spoke a lot about nukes at SPIEF: presser, plenary. And more here in Astana after the SCO meeting.
Pranay Vaddi delivered an interesting speech at Arms Control Association meeting. Lots of continuity, nothing good ahead.
Back to Russia, more and more suggestions that we might soon see an updated nuclear doctrine, watch this space.
US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group belongs to this section, and it is as much about signaling as about diplomacy.
Further reading
Latest STRATDELA Special about Rapid Launch services (also available on Medium).
My short essay on crisis communications, and more available here
Huge release by our friends at PIR Center: Security Index Yearbook 2024-2025 by PIR&MGIMO Vol.1 Digital Edition, couple of chapters by yours truly
Great interview with Alexey Arbatov by PIR people, and one more by RBK.
Traditional US Nuclear Forces overview
Some thoughts by yours truly on NSNW exercise [in Russian]
Assorted interviews with Sergey Ryabkov: May, July, [in Russian]
NYT reporting on Pentagon plans for Star Wars 2.0
Big publication on NATO space capabilities
Interview with Sergey Lavrov with some stratdel-ish comments
Pentagon on SLCM-N
There was a semi-public debate in IMEMO between Alexei Arbatov and Dmitri Trenin on nuclear deterrence, here are some public parts of their arguments: Arbatov, Trenin [in Russian]
Huge Australian Journal of International Affairs issue on AI and military
Good piece on No First Use
Deep Cuts issue brief on HGVs
SIPRI on global nuclear arsenals
IMEMO/MGIMO Strategic Review 2023
Music
1349 are among the best in the black metal scene, retaining their own very specific style.
End Notes
That’s all for today. Stay with us, respond, criticize and have fun.