STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #2
Strategic offensive weapons
Not much lately, although this might be good news actually.
Notable exception: delivery of the Belgorod 'special purpose' submarine to the Navy. This 09852 project SSN is routinely described as a Poseidon nuclear-powered and nuclear-tipped UUV, but in fact its missions might be more nuanced. The official release by the Sevmash shipbuilding plant focuses on 'research' missions, as well as relevant comments by Navy chief admiral Yevmenov: https://sevmash.ru/rus/news/3255-c-lr-.html
So, what we know so far:
- research and scientific tasks;
- scientific expeditions;
- search and rescue operations;
- carrier of rescue deep-water and autonomous unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV).
All of that - "in the farthest region of the World Ocean". Looks like UUV operations will be a priority task for this beast, but first let's see how it travels to the Pacific, which is rumored to be its primary theater.
More on Belgorod here, by one and only HI Sutton: http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html
In the US, we've seen the failure of Minotaur II+ launch which, reportedly, had to test a payload for the next-gen Sentinel GBSD ICBM:https://www.space.com/minotaur-rocket-explodes-military-test-mission
Hard to understand what the complexities are, my working theory is that there might be some knowledge loss/gap with new solid fuel boosters and/or operations of the old ones due to huge stockpiles after the INF/START dismantlements. Same might be true for the hypersonic weapons development challenges.
#hyperhype
Last time I've forgot to mention the short release by the Russian MoD on Avangard operators training: https://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12426942@egNews
Around 200 servicemen are being trained. It is clear, including from the text of the release, that this number includes guards, energy support, etc. but still good data point. Moreover, it explicitly mentions that there are training facilities in the deployment area in Orenburg region.
Not much progress across the ocean, although a nice photo of Dark Eagle inside C-17 appeared on Twitter:
Useful detail: "...the 4th Airlift Squadron at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington – the only unit in the Air Force that is qualified to airlift nuclear weapons", according to Hans Kristensen, Matt Korda and their Nuclear Notebook.
Diplomacy
The major thing this week was the G20. Luckily, there were zero strategic/nuclear weapons related topics.
NATO summit, of course, was received with harsh criticism in Russia, the most distilled reaction is here by Patrushev: https://tass.ru/politika/15123469
Every single action (includign AUKUS) is considered destabilizing. But it is worth noting that the Russia-NATO Founding Act is mentioned as something still alive. Unlike in my twitter poll a month ago:)
For a deeper dive in the New NATO Strategic Concept and Arms Control, I suggest this piece by William Alberque: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2022/06/the-new-nato-strategic-concept-and-the-end-of-arms-control
By the way, also kind of diplomatic stuff: looks like IAEA is increasingly okay with AUKUS - https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/australia-committed-to-nuclear-non-proliferation-and-science-iaea-chief-visit
Still, China, and Russia, will continue to raise serious questions regarding the loopholes in NPT on HEU for submarine reactors.
Space
Roscosmos added a section on their website with all their space launch vehicles ever used: https://www.roscosmos.ru/33/ (In Russian, and might not be accessible from some countries without VPN).
Bart Hendrickx published another deep dive into the world of under-the-radar Russian space projects: https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4416/1
Still, most people I've talked to agree that Kalina as a 'stationary dazzler' makes little sense, so it seems that it is a part of SSA mostly.
One important event lately: Virgin Orbit joins the ranks of 'New Space" companies working for the military - https://www.space.com/virgin-orbit-straight-up-mission-launch-success
Rapid deployment of satellites, this kind of stuff.
Further reading (and watching)
I've ran across a recording of my lecture on space warfighting for the MSU people back in early February: https://youtu.be/zCbI-dS5cAk
Still sounds somewhat relevant.
Also, here are two videos of me talking about all things AI-related at the Pyatigorsk State University in April, but those are in Russian:
Lecture+Q&A - https://youtu.be/PR2mko24M1w
Discussion - https://youtu.be/VZT57K_ONvY
Finally, Ksenia Pirnavskaya launched a wonderful Nuclear Pep Talk thing, and I've joined her to talk about nuclear war once as well: https://youtu.be/caSOHHzVHt8
There are plenty of great episodes.
My good friend Valentin Gibalov delivered an awesome lecture on nulcear energy for space research and flight, it is also in Russian, but well worth your time: https://youtu.be/xjoTBTho1g0
Now, back to reading, first of all, some stuff I've announced previously.
English version of my text for RIAC on nuclear escalation threats in and around war in Ukraine: https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/special-warheads-and-the-special-military-operation/
Journal article by Alexey Arbatov on how current events affect strategic stability: https://www.imemo.ru/files/File/ru/articles/2022/Polis-2022-4-Arbatov.pdf (in Russian)
English version of the third part of nuclear triad studies by Alexander Yermakov: https://russiancouncil.ru/en/analytics-and-comments/analytics/nuclear-future-underwater-and-in-the-skies/
Also, my interview on broad dynamics in nuclear weapons related fields was published by Gazeta.Ru: https://www.gazeta.ru/army/2022/07/03/15071996.shtml (in Russian)
Last time I've forgotten to advertise a great report on missile verification by UNIDIR, with some contributions by yours truly on the possibilities of distinguishing "peaceful" and "military" rocket/missile projects: https://unidir.org/publication/exploring-options-missile-verification
While we are at it, not a fan of TPNW, but UNIDIR (again;)) did a great research on disarmament verification: https://unidir.org/publication/verifying-disarmament-treaty-prohibition-nuclear-weapons
Another thing I've missed in the previous issue is my short comment on China and their missiles published last Autumn on the Russian in Global Affairs website: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/o-kitae-i-raketah/ (In Russian)
On more current events, Andrey Baklitskiy addressed the prospects of Russian nukes appearing in Belarus here: https://www.forbes.ru/mneniya/470655-prinuzdenie-minskom-o-cem-govorit-novyj-adernyj-argument-moskvy (in Russian)
Music
Long-time subscribers know that I am a big fan of IMPERIAL TRIUMPHANT, a jazz/avant-garde/black/metal trio from NY. Their latest video is, basically, everything packed together, with a notable guest performance by Kenny G (yes, that one) and his son: https://youtu.be/ywcshfrpO3A
End titles
Thank you for reading, feel free to respond and ask questions and suggest corrections!