STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #3

Jul 18, 2022

Strategic Offensive Weapons

Sarmat ICBM - new test soon per Dmitry Rogozin, who is no longer in charge though (more on this later): https://t.me/rogozin_do/3313

BTW I believe I haven't mentioned this interesting statement by Vladimir Degtyar, chief designer of Makeyev bureau: "The silo for the Sarmat is a sophisticated engineering structure that not only ensures the launch of the missile, but also guarantees its safety both when hit by conventional high-precision weapons and nuclear weapons," he said, adding that the missile will leave the shaft "under any conditions and is guaranteed to perform its task, no matter what." (https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15017721)

Not sure if it is actually achievable, but worth noting.

Yet another Yars road-mobile ICBM unit deployed to batlle patrol routes, this time in Barnaul: https://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12429275@egNews

Nothing special.

Another interesting, although not vert fresh, data point is from the US: Sentinel ICBM will be equipped with a liquid fuel rocket motor for post-boost propulsion. Loos like the idea is to increase precision this way, we'll see. Source: https://www.rocket.com/sites/default/files/documents/GBSD_InfoSheet_2020.pdf

By the way its other motors, solid-fuel ones, will likely be built here, at their Engineering, Manufacturing & Development Facility:

B-52 crews, in the meantime, are re-learning how to survive: https://www.barksdale.af.mil/News/Article/3086309/always-ready-barksdale-airmen-execute-ace-capabilities/

"...the skill set that we are asking these crews to develop is the ability to come to an unfamiliar or austere location, land the jet, turn it and get it airborne so that it can get back in the fight"

One of the goals of the exercise was to get the B-52 armed and back in the air within a three-hour window.

“What we’re trying to do with ACE is to complicate our enemies' targeting and decision-making processes,” said Goncalves. “We do that by dispersing our aircraft to a variety of locations around the globe so it’s harder to have a single point of attack."

More USAF news, or rather AUKUS-flavored: some B-2 Spirit heavy bombers arrived to Australia recently: https://www.pacaf.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3088391/b-2-spirit-stealth-bombers-deploy-to-raaf-base-amberley-australia/

...and everyone is still waiting for H-20. Or B-21. Or PAK DA. All three programs seem to be playing a game of poddavki, where the one who loses the competition actually wins.

On B-21 there was a small piece of news though: Loyal Wingman-ish thing looks scrapped now - https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/exclusive-air-force-scraps-b-21-drone-wingman-concept/

#Hyperhype

Here we had some serious news both in Russia and in the US.

First, new name on the block: Zmeyevik (serpentinite stone). TASS reported some interesting stuff on this beast: https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15188365

1) It is a weapon for the Navy with anti-ship role, and its primary basing mode would be a coastal missile system.

2) It is somewhat akin to the Chinese DF-21D and DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missiles. I believe that "4000 km" range was used as a reference to the Chinese weapons by the source, not the Zmeyevik.

3) Main mission - taking out capital surface ships, especially aircraft carriers.

What can I add? Well, first of all, our designers are quite familiar with the concept of anti-ship ballistic missile, and we even had a submarine-launched R-27K for such mission: https://makeyev.ru/activities/missile-systems/2/RaketaR27K/

Another important point - the relation with post-INF moratorium on deployment of ground-based intermediate and shorter range missiles. This beast is probably still quite far from being ready for operations (although the development seems to have been going for some time). Still, I find it possible that it will be deployed to the Pacific theatre initially...or it will be deployed later than the US stuff, e.g. LRHW "Dark Eagle" (more on this weapon later this week, stay tuned).

Final thing, TASS piece says nothing on ISR&targeting support for Zmeyevik HGV-tipped anti-ship missile. Which is sad, as Russian capabilities in this field remain relatively weak.

In the US we've seen some developments with the ARRW and OpFires, which are still rather far from having a full operational system, but some steps forward anyway.

OpFires footage: https://youtu.be/DCL6G9A1fmc

This is quite cool that a lot of existing systems are being repurposed, which also reminds of Kinzhal hypersonic system by the way.

ARRW release: https://www.eglin.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3091814/air-force-completes-another-successful-hypersonic-test/

However, it seems, USAF still has doubts about their capability to match the deadlines: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/on-heels-of-successful-hypersonic-test-air-force-acquisition-exec-is-still-skeptical/

What is even more interesting is the push to have less live fire tests for new weapons: https://www.defensenews.com/land/2022/07/12/army-test-and-evaluation-command-pushes-to-reduce-full-up-live-fire-tests/

At the same time, some serious efforts to enhance industrial capability are ongoing: https://www.defensenews.com/2022/07/12/biden-to-sign-two-defense-production-act-directives-targeting-hypersonic-industrial-base/

With a rather importan quote here: "...the office asked industry for details on its ability to produce hypersonic engines at scale and said its target is to have enough capability across the industrial base to support an initial production capacity of four to six hypersonic missiles per month."

Finally, a sneak peek on a longread being prepared for release later this week:

Space

The biggest piece of news here is, of course, Dmitry Rogozin leaving Roscomos. The fun part though is that in Russia the circle of reshuffling officials was seen the opposite way: "If Manturov becomes a depute prime minister, than Borisov goes to Roscosmos", and only after that people started thinking about Rogozin - who, at the time of this writing, remains in reserve.

Anyway, Rogozin despite his public persona achieved an impressive sequence of succesful launches, finally deployed new modules to the ISS (which can eventually become a basis for a Russian national space station) and made some other good stuff. And Vostochnyy:

Of course, there were failures as well, but at least some of those are based on a general problems with strategic planning in our country.

Borisov at the helm of Roscosmos will probably narrow the goals and focus on military support infrasturcture.

On New Space we've seen continuation of military applications:

more details regarding Cosmic Girl payloads I've mentioned in a previous issue - https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/newest-sats-launched-by-dod-include-jammer-evading-classified-payloads/
rapid satellite launches becoming a real capabilty for Space Force - https://www.defensenews.com/battlefield-tech/space/2022/07/12/us-space-force-plan-for-rapid-satellite-launches-may-finally-take-off/
'tactical ISR' ridesharing plan - https://breakingdefense.com/2022/07/space-force-considers-asking-satellite-firms-to-host-payloads-for-tactical-isr/

Music

One of my favourite bands, SHINING (from Norway) published a video from their epic lockdown-era concert at the Heavy Water Plant: https://youtu.be/W72BLF7tR3I

End titles

Thank you for reading, and expect something interesting in a few days!

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