STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #6
Strategic Offensive Weapons
The biggest deal: we have a signed contract on Sarmat heavy ICBM deliveries - https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15484509
Numbers and schedule are unclear, although I assume it might be a contract for the first regiment, with initial one or two missile and launchers to be deployed before 2023. If there was another contract on test units, of course:)
In the US we have finally seen a long-delayed Minuteman-III test launch: https://youtu.be/5aNyRr6Y1CE
Personally I've noticed the reference to New START and Hague Code of Conduct notifications in this release, which is always welcome: https://www.spoc.spaceforce.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3128580/unarmed-minuteman-iii-test-launch-to-showcase-readiness-of-us-nuclear-forces-sa
Back in Russia, a next generation SSBN was showcased at the Army 2022 forum: Arktur. Less SLBMs, more stealth, lots of UUVs, this kind of stuff. Still about half a century before Borei-A will get this substitution: https://ria.ru/20220816/arktur-1809879782.html
With the air leg - let's wait for new B-52 designators after modernization, end of an era is coming: https://www.airforcemag.com/b-52-will-get-at-least-one-new-designation-with-radar-engine-upgrades/
B-2A still having fun in Australia, even with some replacements which might suggest long-term deployment plans: https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/strike-air-combat/10487-fifth-b-2-to-touch-down-in-australia
On the Russian LRA side - some conscripts and Tu-95MS:
Also there is a new contract on long-range air-launched cruise missiles for Raduga, likely Kh-101\102, although something new might be possible as well: https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15484469
#hyperhype
There was a somewhat official statement on Kinzhal entering service with the Long Range Aviation here: http://redstar.ru/ot-vozduhoplavaniya-do-gospodstva-v-nebe/
Previously there were reports that its home field is at Savasleyka, near Nizhny Novgorod: https://iz.ru/1292447/anton-lavrov-bogdan-stepovoi/polet-kinzhala-giperzvukovye-rakety-popolnili-dalniuiu-aviatciiu
Lots of stuff on the US hypersonic weapons, the bottom line is that there is some progress with the most programs.
OpFires - https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/darpa-updates-on-opfires-hypersonic-missile-test/ (note that there was no payload during the initial test, which makes sense, but suggests to limit the hype)
MAYHEM - https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a40601729/everything-about-the-air-forces-secret-hypersonic-bomber/ (lots of crazy stuff, but it seems that the idea to have a multi-purpose hypersonic drone might make some sense eventually)
ARRW, HACM, (Mo)HAWC and TBG - https://www.airforcemag.com/richardson-tbg-and-hawc-can-still-inform-other-hypersonic-efforts/
...and LRHW might get actual rounds in 6 months - https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/first-live-rounds-of-armys-hypersonic-weapon-coming-in-roughly-6-months/ !!!
(don't forget about reading and sharing STRATDELA special issue on LRHW: https://medium.com/@hasstef/stratdela-special-issue-1-dark-eagle-e283cfb3202e)
Zumwalts also will get their hypersonic weapons eventually - https://news.usni.org/2022/08/12/hii-set-to-install-first-hypersonic-missiles-on-uss-zumwalt-uss-michael-monsoor-during-repair-period
Missile Defense
I believe you've followed updates from the Space and Missile Defense Symposium in Huntsville.
Anyway, here's a nice simulation video of the US Homeland Missile Defense: https://youtu.be/Zgw7zDZDZKs
Note the final part with multi-object kill vehicles under new designators.
That long-troubled Aegis Ashore site in Poland is nearing completion, unbelievable: https://breakingdefense.com/2022/08/missile-defense-chief-confident-polands-aegis-ashore-ready-in-2023/
In Russia, we have a signed contract on S-500 air/missile defense system, without any details though: https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15484593
We also have seen a satellite image of what looks like a Chinese ABM (or ASAT) weapon: https://twitter.com/pir34/status/1556384399058403331?t=eJQfI3UuESHKPDl_nNqISw&s=19
Space
The biggest deal is probably the Iranian recon satellite on the Russian SLV from Kazakhstan. Hugely symbolic.
In other news, Chinese friends launched their version of reusable uncrewed spacecraft (a-la X-37B) to orbit some time ago, and it is still there: https://www.seradata.com/china-launches-its-csshq-1-mini-spaceplane-again/
And the Russian Kosmos-2558 is still hanging around USA 326: https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1558330907337146368?t=07IaZPAdFoSWhHhkylteHw&s=19
By the way, another contract signed during Army 2022 was on Lotos-S recon satellites for the Russian military: https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15484521
Diplomacy
Well, the biggest deal is that Russia announced suspension of New START inspections on Russian objects. I suggest reading original stuff first.
MFA Statement: https://www.mid.ru/ru/press_service/spokesman/official_statement/1825525/?lang=en
Sergey Ryabkov's comments: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1825685/ (in Russ.)
The bottom line is that Russia wants a formal solution that will provide symmetrical inspection capabilities for both sides. Let's see how it goes, at the moment the issue seems manageable, but fragile.
Sergey Shoigu addressed both nuclear weapon use hysteria and arms control issues at his speech at the Moscow Conference on International Security (which has an even lower profile this year): https://eng.mil.ru/en/mcis/news/more.htm?id=12433677@egNews
The translation is awful, but the main points are quite understandable: no need for tactical nuclear us in Ukraine, nukes are only for deterrence (and the language used is even closer to the sole purpose), and arms control should provide reciprocal benefits.
By the way, the long and dramatic story about Biden's administration and sole purpose also deserves to be mentioned in this section: https://www.airforcemag.com/sole-purpose-policy-nuclear-posture-review-biden-wants-it-future/
Further reading
Lots of important stuff said by Admiral Richard of the US Stratcom at Huntsville:
Still, deterrence always was non-linear, and third parties had a word. Hope US planners are studying Russian experience.
Another important disclosure: "To respond to Russia this spring, the United States launched nuclear command post teams in its E-6 Mercury “Looking Glass” aircraft, which are militarized Boeing 707s, on extended airborne operations." This sounds like a measure not unlike that special mode of combat duty for the Russian strategic deterrence forces everyone freaked out about (including me) back in the day.
Good piece on Russian public perceptions of nukes: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00220027221118815
Useful perspective by Rose Gottemoeller, although I can't agree with some of the claims and statements: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/case-against-new-arms-race
Great thread by one and only Alex Wellerstein about the original tactical report about Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings: https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/1556000176485154816?t=j87Y6o0Vti6xVPNVXXgjCA&s=19
More comments on New START inspections suspension:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/09/russia-suspend-nuclear-inspections/
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5503228 (in Russ.)
And a hot take by me: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/inspektor-ne-letit/ (in Russ.)
BTW you can always find most of my stuff here: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Dmitry-Stefanovich
Feel free to reach out in case you can't get some papers I've written, we'll think of something.
Music
Some jazz for a change. Makar Kashytsin is something awesome, saw him live recently. Fantastic young musician: https://youtu.be/DQf1KUdj8-I
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