STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #7
Strategic Offensive Weapons
RVSN (Strategic Rocket Forces) Military Council gathered last week, and while the focus was on education, they've also discussed current and future delivery systems (Yars, Avangard, Sarmat): https://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/strategic_rocket/news/more.htm?id=12438389@egNews
Another interesting piece of data was that there were ~20 dissertations defended at the 4th TsNII dedicated to missiles.
Fun little SRF photo: MIOM, engineering support and concealment vehicle that is a part of Yars convoys.
I believe those red railings help to check whether Yars launcher will be able to get through this or that part of the patrol area.
Russian Long-Range Aviation in the Far East is preparing for yet another week of flights, and there are some nice photos:
They are actually flying rather frequently: https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12438302@egNews
There are signs that Burevestnik unlimited range nuclear-powered cruise missile is ready for another test: https://planesandstuff.wordpress.com/2022/09/17/burevestnik-actually-could-be-ready-to-test/
Personally not a fan of this thing, and have some doubts, but need to follow the developments.
In the US, everyone is waiting for the B-21 Raider heavy bomber rollout, which is now scheduled for early December this year: https://www.airandspaceforces.com/limited-b-21-rollout-planned-for-early-december/
By the way, one of the next of our Specials will be dedicated to the Raider.
December might deliver a lot of new stuff for the strategic forces all around the world.
In the meantime, B-1B Lancers are countering malign maritime activities on the next level: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/b-1b-bombers-are-hunting-illegal-fishing-boats-off-south-america
Still, such operations and capabilities can be useful for great power conflict as well.
US missileers launched another Minuteman-III (https://twitter.com/US_STRATCOM/status/1567503230560501767), now in MIRV configuration, and everyone immediately remembered Marshall Billingslea:
In the meantime, we are getting more and more data on Chinese XLUUV, which are becoming a relevant part in the naval warfare and for sea leg of nuclear triads specifically: https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/09/chinas-secret-extra-large-submarine-drone-program-revealed/
#hyperhype
Really good paper on hypersonic weapons has been published by the TNSR, deserves a deep dive: https://tnsr.org/2022/09/technology-acquisition-and-arms-control-thinking-through-the-hypersonic-weapons-debate/
Russian MiG-31I/K w/ Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic missiles are in Kaliningrad region (https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12434136@egNews) and they are carrying out exercises in striking adversary hardened command posts (https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12437997@egNews).
Post-INF
US Navy in Europe demonstrated what might become MRC Typhon eventually, although now it is labeled differently:
The problem is there, and there are no signs that we will se a solution anytime soon.
Missile Defense
Well, not much new, but the only BIG piece is very important: possibility Germany acquiring Arrow-3 from Israel (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/germany-choosing-arrow-3-missile-defense-system-would-be-a-big-deal).
Well, self-fulfilling prophecy on European/NATO missile defense, if you know what I mean...
Not that it will dramatically undermine anything, but the equations will be re-written and re-calculated.
For those who might be interested, I've scanned a promo brochure on the Abakan missile defense system offered by Almaz-Antey for export: https://disk.yandex.ru/i/Mxe2oiHpIbeL7g
Space
I've had an honour to deliver remarks at one of the panels of the UN Open-Ended Working Group on Space Threats, video can be found here: https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1g/k1g0dsqxj9
This whole Session was packed with useful stuff, and more or less all statements and presentations are available here: https://meetings.unoda.org/section/oewg-space-2022_general-statements_19856_general-statements_22495/
There are a lot of issues and conflicting narratives, but it is great to have a platform for a discussion. Norms are not always what you like (©B.Bowen), commercial infrastructure can be militarized, and any conflict might spillover to involve new actors - through space. But it does not meant that we can sit and wait.
...and stay tuned for the UNIDIR Outer Space Security Conference 2022: https://unidir.org/events/outer-space-security-conference-2022
Diplomacy
X NPT RevCon concluded without final document, but it was kind of expected. I'd prefer everyone involved taking an extra mile, although under current circumstance it is hardly possible. Anyway, it was not a disaster, and I am still somewhat hopeful for nuclear-related diplomatic actions.
Good people from PIR Center wrote a lot of stuff about the RevCon here: http://www.pircenter.org/news/7457-1021573 (In Russian)
While ZNPP is not an explicit topic for STRATDELA, I'd like to emphasize that now we are looking at how military operations around nuclear powerplants can be limited/organized, and this is important (although probably something that is better to follow from another planet) - we will hardly see less military conflicts on Earth in the near future, and nuclear energy is here to stay as well.
Another hot nuclear topic is AUKUS, and it is also rather charged: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-14/china-iaea-lopsided-aukus-nuclear-submarines-report/101441254
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting was an interesting event, and, among other things, the Samarkand Declaration includes a number of STRATDELA-relevant articles, namely 40-43. SCO member states support NPT (with a clause on non-members), "draw attention to the negative impact of unilateral and unrestricted build-ups of global missile defence systems by individual countries or groups of States on international security and stability", argue for multilateral approaches, including through the Conference on Disarmament, and argue against weaponization of Outer Space.
The full text is available here, for example: https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/35724/Samarkand+Declaration+of+the+Council+of+Heads+of+State+of+Shanghai+Cooperation+Organization
Secretary of the Security Council Nikolay Patrushev paid a visit to his Chinese counterparts, where they've discussed strategic security and agreed to continue joint patrols and military-technical cooperation: http://scrf.gov.ru/news/allnews/3339/
Further reading and watching
Nice people from the Carnegie published their research on GBSD: https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/assessing-u.s.-options-for-future-of-icbm-force-pub-87808
If only other countries had a habit of such assessments for strategic weapons...
We had a great talk with my friends and colleagues Alexander Yermakov and Konstantin Bogdanov on nuclear deterrence, arms control, non-proliferation, etc. at the RIAC "Urban Breakfast" some time ago. Here are some points in English: https://russiancouncil.ru/en/news/nuclear-war-a-hypothetical-scenario-or-a-real-threat-riac-urban-breakfast/
Also, the video is available, although in Russian:
This event was dedicated to a presentation of a publication by Alexander on nuclear triads and their alternatives, which is available in Russian: https://russiancouncil.ru/activity/workingpapers/yadernoe-oruzhie-alternativy-proshlogo-i-varianty-budushchego/
US STRATCOM nominee Gen. Cotton said some interesting things here: https://www.airandspaceforces.com/bonafide-chinese-nuclear-triad-means-stratcom-has-work-to-do-cotton-says/
Also, take a look at this project, might develop into something very important: https://futureoflife.org/nuclear-war-grant-rfp/
For connoisseurs - a piece by one and only Dmitry Kornev about a retired Soviet nuclear gravity bomb Izd.244: http://militaryrussia.ru/blog/topic-941.html
There was a celebration of a 75th Anniversary at the 12 Main Directorate, people in charge of Russian nukes. Enjoy a special issue of Krasnaya Zvezda: https://disk.yandex.ru/i/vvVm8t8UEQ3mkQ
Music
CLUTCH is one of the best bands right now, and their insane lyrics, psychedelic videos and fantastic riffs help to keep one's head working these days.
Check out their latest album.
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Feel free to reach out in case you think I've missed something, there's a lot of things going on right now.
Thank you for reading, and hope we'll stay in touch!