STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #9
Strategic Offensive Weapons
Well, the biggest thing was the major Russian strategic deterrence forces exercise on October 26th.
Sineva liquid-fule SLBM from Tula (Delta-IV class) SSBN, Yars ICBM (road-mobile version), unknown ALCMs from Tu-95MS heavy bombers.
Takeaways:
1) Strategic delivery systems only, neither "non-strategic nuclear" nor "strategic non-nuclear" stuff participated - at least, publicly.
2) Emphasis on retaliatory and massive nature of the nuclear strike in response two a first nuclear strike by adversary. Absence of Pacific boomers and silo launchers active public participation of all three alleged nuclear decision-makers (Commander-in-Chief, Defense Minister, Head of General Staff) might suggest simulation of degraded capabilities. Or not.
3) All notifications (as well as Cobra Ball guest of honor) in place.
Still, expect more launches in the near future: NOTAMs suggest Bulava launch (probably new Suvorov Borei-A SSBN will be completing tests), and we still wait for Sarmat.
Belgorod special purpose SSN traveled somewhere and raised concerns about Poseidon extra-large nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed UUV, and some stuff seem to be going on in areas associated with Burevestnik unlimited range nuclear-powered cruise missile, but nothing substantial and factual so far.
In other news, reportedly, PAK DA engine completed another batch of tests. Not much.
In the US we are expecting a rollout of B-21 Raider in early December. Everything one needs to know about this beast (based on public information, of course) is available in STRATDELA Special #2: https://medium.com/@hasstef/stratdela-special-issue-2-the-raider-758d4a8b2736
US Navy SSBNs are rather active in demonstrating their presence, like, everywhere, although the one in the Persian Gulf was the most impressive.
Venerable B-52s will probably get themselves a new home in Australia, and don't forget new engines, etc.
For China watchers, take a look at this magnificent report by CASI on PLARF: https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display/Article/3193056/pla-rocket-force-organization/
#hyperhype
MiG-31K (or rather MiG-31I) Kinzhal air-launched hypersonic aeroballistic missile carriers reportedly noticed in Belarus at Machulischi airfield near Minsk. Some claims have been coming and going for a few weeks, now we have it from the UK MoD.
By the way, that very airfield used to host original Tu-22s back in the day, and had been upgraded at least since around Spring 2022.
In the US we saw a successful test of a number of hypersonic weapon components, as well as growing emphasis on additive manufacturing. We'll see.
Good people from IMEMO started to produce podcasts.
Here's
Diplomacy and signaling
Well, Biden's NDS/NPR/MDR-2022 are here, what else do you need? (just in case - https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/27/2003103845/-1/-1/1/2022-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-NPR-MDR.PDF)
Expect some stuff on it later.
We also have new figures on New START, nothing dramatic here: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1833766/
There are rumors about imminent BCC meeting, but not clear when and where, as far as I understand.
Further reading and listening
Good people from IMEMO started to produce podcasts. In Russian, though.
Here's one on possibility of Russia-US strategic arms control given the current situation: https://www.imemo.ru/special-rubrics/podcasts/text/vtoroy-vipusk-podkasta-laboratoriya-imemo (Arbatov, Bogdanov, Stefanovich)
Here's a more recent one about the US National Security Strategy: https://www.imemo.ru/special-rubrics/podcasts/text/chetvertiy-vipusk-podkasta-laboratoriya-imemo (Voitolovsky, Zhuravleva, Kislitsyn)
Also, there's a new IMEMO "Analytical Report" on nukes and Ukraine: https://www.imemo.ru/en/news/events/text/analiticheskiy-doklad-imemo-ran-yaderniy-faktor-v-ukrainskom-konflikte (available in English too!)
In case someone wants to know what I think about Steadfast Noon and other mutual deterrence signaling - here's an interview for a Russian tabloid: https://www.mk.ru/politics/2022/10/18/ekspert-raskryl-smysl-yadernykh-ucheniy-nato-element-ustrasheniya.html
And here's a bigger interview by yours truly on all things nuclear, strategic and disruptive: https://lenta.ru/articles/2022/10/06/stefanovich/
My friend and colleague Konstantin Bogdanov said some stuff on nuclear trends in general here: https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/yadernoe-ne-nachinat/
Vladimir Putin also had some stuff to say about nuclear weapons at the Valdai Club plenary: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69695
Some thought-provoking stuff by my friends from Germany: https://thebulletin.org/2022/10/nuclear-injustice-how-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-shows-the-staggering-human-cost-of-deterrence/
There is a huge, enormous number of writings about Cuban Missile Crisis anniversary, but I will not share them here not to make angry the authors I've missed.
Music
There is literally nothing more important than Punk Rock Grandpa finally delivering Punk Rock: https://youtu.be/GwB2EZS9x9I
End titles
Pretty sure I've missed something, but these are the times. Stay tuned, more stuff to come. Hopefully, good stuff.