STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #10
Strategic Offensive Weapons
As expected, latest Russian Borei-A SSBN Generalissimus Suvorov launched its Bulava SLBM and is expected to join the ranks of the Navy before 2022 ends. So, 8 years in construction. Interestingly enough, unexpectedly, there was no footage of the launch released.
Reportedly, Sarmat will be flight-tested once more this year after all. Declaring it even 'initially operational' in 2022, given the current state of both the missile development and it deployment area reconstruction, seems unlikely, although everything is possible these days.
US E-6B has been spotted in Europe, likely had arrived to support SSBN operations.
UK SSBN HMS Victorious got into some trouble recently. Nothing serious though. I wonder if we will have a leak of those letters by the Prime Minister eventually, could be an awesome research topic given how fast and under which circumstances those change this year...
DPRK launched all sorts of their missiles, with different level of 'strategic-ness', both very old and very new, but things got a bit calmer, it seems. Although some possible nuclear test-related activities remain on the radar.
PS, call me wrong, but testing of palletized JASSM-ER being launched from cargo aircraft is also kind of strategic and offensive.
#hyperhype
Some new stuff on Tsirkon: first, reportedly, its ground-launched version prototype resembling Bastion coastal missile system is developed (8x8 chassis, 2 missiles per launcher); second, an extra contract on production of the missiles has been signed this Autumn with the deliveries over 2023.
Iran reports about their own new hypersonic weapon, but let's wait for some details. Not that I feel surprised anyway.
First "All-Up-Round" for the US Army (LRHW) and Navy (CPS) hypersonic weapon project have been assembled this summer. Still waiting for the proper tests.
Roc aircraft being used as a test platform for the US hypersonic weapon projects was expected for some time, now it is official: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/stratolaunch-announces-contract-with-us-air-force-research-laboratory-301677342.html
The Chinese demonstrated something resembling Kinzhal in Zhuhai airshow, as well as many other interesting things, more on that next time.
Space and Missile Defense
The biggest news is the return of X-37B from yet another epic voyage. Space Force released some cool shots, and the best one is this with a 'service module' for 'experiments'.
Yes, those experiments that at least some people argue to be related with what does look like space-based weaponry, although we still need to see any substantial proofs.
By the way, ICYMI, great people at the Secure World Foundation have a wonderful fact sheet about this beast. Detail
US Space Force laid down their new policies on moving to smaller satellites, etc., makes total sense: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/11/its-official-space-force-sets-sights-smaller-satellites/379204/.
There are some similar steps within the Russian space enterprise, probably will prepare some analysis soon.
Iranians continued to test space launch vehicles that continue to resemble ballistic missiles.
In the meantime, India continued their own missile defense testing.
By the way, expect a rather long Valdai publication on missile defense soon.
Diplomacy and signalling
First and foremost on that field: a statement by the Russian Federation on preventing nuclear war - https://www.mid.ru/ru/press_service/spokesman/official_statement/1836575/?lang=en
It is actually rather solid document, but do not consider it to be a some sort of a dramatic change. There is actually much more continuity in Russian official position on nuclear weapons that some people are trying to make us believe.
New START BCC expected in Cairo in late November-early December. Fingers crossed, all the issues, including inspections on hold, seem solvable.
Nukes remain quite high on bilateral and multilateral agenda. There were reports about direct contacts between Naryshkin and Burns early this week and Istanbul with discussions on nuclear use within the Ukrainian context.
2022 G20 joint statement, reportedly, will also say smth like "The use, or threat of the use, of nuclear weapons is inadmissible." It does make sense, although we can already start bidding on which nuclear weapon state will be the first to explain how 'deterrence signals' differ from 'nuclear threats'.
All in all the continued interest in the topic might be useful eventually, including for the academia and think tank world, but we need to survive first.
In other news, the Open Skies Treaty is still alive, even without the big boys, and a couple of new/refurbished aircraft (German and Romanian) received their certifications: https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/organisation/streitkraeftebasis/aktuelles/neue-flugzeuge-am-offenen-himmel-5506162
Further reading
I've ran across quite an awesome paper - On the Security of LEO Satellite Communication Systems: Vulnerabilities, Countermeasures, and Future Trends. Very detailed and deep.
Great reporting on the US Space Force "Victus Nox" rapid response project - https://spacenews.com/space-force-lays-out-timeline-for-2023-rapid-response-launch-experiment/
As usual, great rundown of the US Nuclear Posture Review by Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda - https://fas.org/blogs/security/2022/10/2022-nuclear-posture-review/
I was more busy writing than reading lately, so sorry for not posting more links. But would be happy to give a signal boost should any of you needs to share some stuff!
Music
Something classic this time: https://youtu.be/PoaGf7Bb5E4 (yeah, yeah, I am a fan:))
End titles
That's all for today's STRATDELA issue. Expect a special one rather sooner than later, and spread the word!
Also, as usual, feel free to reach out should you have some questions and/or comments.
Best,
Dima
