STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #12
Strategic offensive weapons
Let's start with the aviation: B-21 is rolled out.
Some brief thoughts that were already posted on our telegram channel:
The unveiling and public presentation of the B-21 Raider took place on Friday, December 2, 2022, with serious restrictions. Six hundred guests were forbidden to bring their smartphones and photo equipment, waited for the twilight, and the plane was not rolled out too far - the Pentagon clearly did not want a repeat of the situation with the presentation of the B-2 filmed from above by the aircraft.
The Raider turned out to be both similar and unlike the early images. The "beak" was gone, but the "wink" of the side "windows" is in place. The shape of the air intakes is not the same as in the pictures, they are almost sunk into the fuselage. The color is quite light, almost white, perhaps the new coating, or the first prototype does not have it at all. The tail part is successfully hidden.
Also, let me remind everyone about a special issue on Raider: https://medium.com/@hasstef/stratdela-special-issue-2-the-raider-758d4a8b2736
One more fun fact: looks like Ellsworth AFB will begin 're-nuclearization' rather sooner than later - https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/usaf-b-1-bomber-unit-prepares-for-b-21-raider/151309.article
Another important development related to strategic bombers is the Ukrainian attack on two Russian airbases of the long-range aviation - Dyagilevo and Engels. Highly symbolic, especially given the fact that the strike was made while the bombers were loaded and readied for sorties. Still, it seems, the role of the US in this attack is being down-played by everyone involved.
Other legs of nuclear triads have not caught my attention these days, but everyone still waits for the Sarmat launches and deployment. Sad.
#hyperhype
Here we finally have something labeled as a successful flight of the ARRW, US Air Force air-launched hypersonic glide vehicle. Official release does not offer much info, but, well, success is a success in the absence of the opposite data. So now the question is what will happen with the production funding, which was kind of removed from the recent NDAA.
Space and Missile Defense
Russian military delivered quite a tempo of launches from Plesetsk: three satellites deployed to orbit over November. Reportedly, now we have one more Tundra/EKS (Early Warning), one Glonass-M (navigation), one Lotos (ISR/targeting).
Also, there are signs of a possible growing cooperation between Russia and Iran in satellite design and production, per comments from Yuri Borisov (https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/7857)
On December 2nd we were shown a new test launch of what looks like a modernized Moscow ABM 53T6M interceptor at Sary-Shagan (Kazakhstan): https://structure.mil.ru/structure/forces/vks/news/more.htm?id=12447272@egNews
Arms Control, Diplomacy, Signalling
Well, you all know the biggest problem: BCC meeting within New START was cancelled by the Russian side citing political and to some extent technical reasons. Hopefully we will see the developments of this situation rather sooner than later, but I'm afraid things might degrade even further.
In the meantime, President Putin offered some thoughts and remarks on nuclear-related doctrines, including no-first use, preemptive strikes, etc. Nothing to worry specifically, but it might be a sign of some new concepts brewing.
Further reading (and watching)
Lots of stuff this time.
Here's a good paper on possible conventional arms control future for Europe: https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/11/the-art-of-the-possible-minimizing-risks-as-a-new-european-order-takes-shape/
Similar topic with some historical cases is addressed in this piece: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/policy-brief/lessons-from-the-past-arms-control-in-uncooperative-times/
And here's me talking about nuclear shadow over warfighting in Ukraine: https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/38192
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov addressed the participants in the Moscow Non-Proliferation Conference: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1841822/?lang=en
I've addressed the current state of nuclear deterrence in this short comment for Valdai Club: https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/nuclear-deterrence-2022/
Also, some of my thoughts on Biden's Administration Nuclear Posture and Missile Defense Reviews (in Russian): https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/obzor-yadernoj-politiki/
Here's something unusual, a paper addressing visual images related to the topic of cybersecurity: https://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/commentary/the-hooded-man-at-the-computer-what-are-cyber-images-telling-us/
Great deep paper on satellite ground stations vulnerabilities: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/366050065_Commercial_Space_Risk_Framework_Assessing_the_Satellite_Ground_Station_Security_Landscape_for_NATO_in_the_Arctic_and_High_North
Some thoughts on B-21 by my colleague (In Russian): https://vz.ru/world/2022/12/4/1189544.html
People from PIR Center released a huge report on possible next nuclear weapon states: https://pircenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/22-11-29-NINE-Report-Final.pdf
By the way, we had a great discussion with PIR and RIAC on NPT RevCon consequences and future of the regime: https://youtu.be/CLglKRgBUs0
And for those who are fond of all things military, not necessarily strategic, enjoy recordings of Ogarkov Readings 2022: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLPN6qQr1uoRsi5GPDEnDQmyYWwUemYxZy
Music
ZEAL & ARDOR, one of my favourite bands, released a new song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCEUwYgSwJw
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That's all for today!
As usual, I am open for your comments and suggestions, and hope you will recommend my newsletter to your friends and colleagues.