STRATDELA newsletter by Dmitry Stefanovich - Issue #13
Strategic offensive weapons
We've had some announcements and videos on further re-armament of the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces before 2022 ended.
Two road-mobile missile regiments re-armed with Yars ICBM (including the final division in Tver' region with 'vanilla' Topol' ICBMs), and a third Kozelsk silo-based missile regiment continues the process.
Second Avangard HGV-tipped silo-based ICBM regiment is under-rearmament.
In 2023 it was announced that 22 launcher with Yars, Sarmat and Avangard will enter service.
Good that obvious delays with Sarmat were finally acknowledged by the officials.
Sirena-M command/signal missiles might have begun deployment at Yurya regiment, although nothing official so far.
On the Borei-A SSBN front we have Generalissimus Suvorov entering the Navy, and Imperator Alexander III floated out (expected to enter service in 2023). Not bad at all, but the issues with general purpose naval forces remain.
UAC publicized progress son Tu-160M heavy bombers, depending on how one understands we have 1 or 2 deeply modernized and one 'newly-built' at what seems like final tests before formal delivery. Total of three are expected this year. One Tu-160M and one Tu-95MS entered service over 2022,
Also there were statements on repaired/mildly modernized Tu-22M3 delivered to VKS.
Belgorod special purpose SSN reportedly carried out 'release tests' of Poseidon nuclear-powered XLUUV/'doomsday torpedo' and returned to its port. Let's wait for something official.
Will focus on strategic weapons of other countries next time.
#hyperhype
Biggest news is the first formal deployment of warship armed with hypersonic weapons: Admiral Gorshkov frigate with Tsirkon hypersonic missiles (as well as Kalibrs, etc.) will travel to the Atlantic, Indian ocean and The Mediterranean. More symbolic rather than actual military mission, although the takeaways will definitely affect the thinking behind that idea to deploy Tsirkon-armed platforms towards US shores in case US INF-range missile appear near Russian borders.
Also, there were claims that more Kinzhals will enter service with the Long-Range Aviation, as well as some new hypersonic air-to-ground munitions for heavy bombers. Nothing specific so far, but names like Ostrota, Gremlin and, generally, GZUR are well-known.
Space & Missile Defense
Sixth EKS/Tundra/Kupol Early Warning satellite is in orbit and working well. Russian Early Warning system is actually in pretty good shape right now, although the threats to Russian territory are of different nature these days.
Russia seems to stay with the International Space Station until 2024 and probably 2028. While we are at it, there might be dramatic moments with Soyuz spacecraft replacement soon, given that for some time there might be not enough 'lifeboats' for the ISS crew.
If you want more drama - check out the teaser for the movie Vyzov filmed, well, on the ISS:
Next week (17.01, 11 am Moscow time) me and some colleagues will be presenting a paper on Missile Defense at Valdai Club, might be quite interesting. Ping me in case you want a link when it will be available.
Arms Control, Diplomacy, Signalling
New START inspection on BCC are in limbo, which is sad.
At the same time, there were some comments by Vladimir Putin on pre-emptive first strikes, non-nuclear strategic weapons and hypersonics, which deserve deeper analysis, I am working on it - stay tuned.
Music
Gentlemen from THE MONOLITH DEATHCULT are most capable of singing songs about serious stuff without getting, well, too serious. Matador, Silver Dome, etc.
(and yes, I will finish my paper on extreme metal music and WMD themes one day)
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As I've said, next issue will be on another platform, hopefully, you all will receive it on time. Do not hesitate to reach out anytime!
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