STRATDELA Special #19
Sarmat flies! Again…
Few thoughts on the latest RS-28/SS-29 Sarmat ICBM test launch.
This beast is a successor to the school of heavy silo-launched liquid-fuelled ICBMs. I’m no fan of such designs, but such are the traditions – to deploy something with a massive throwweight and a staggering range. So that even a few of those that get through would certainly be able to inflict sufficient unacceptable damage. Not that both it's greater precision compared to Voyevoda/Satan has been emphasized as well.
Operational readiness will most likely be declared by the end of the year (although we've heard such claims more than once), as expected, in Uzhur (62nd Red Banner missile division of the 33rd Guards missile army). Given the amount of political capital invested, not to mention the resources poured into developing the weapon and modernizing production facilities, there were no alternatives anyway.
There is nothing surprising about the lack of public comments on the reasons for the obvious delay in the project’s implementation and the traces of failed tests observed by practically everyone who cares to look. Comrade Supreme Commander-in-Chief quite frankly remarked that the weapon has been under development for about 15 years. Such things happen, by the way, Avangard HGV-tipped ICBM (SS-19 Mod. 4) took roughly the same amount of time, according to the stated timeline.
I expect a few more developments regarding Sarmat in the future.
First, there should be another test launch, if not to maximum range (a range of 35,000 kilometres has now been officially announced, and it is as FOBS-ish as it gets), then certainly to the “Akvatoriya” range in the Southern Pacific.
Second, announcements regarding exotic combat payloads are possible, including hypersonic glide vehicles. Or proper MaRVs at least. Multiple. Fortunately, the RS-28 should have more than enough power to make it work.
It is also possible that some space-focused capabilities (apart from FOBS) can be provided by this platform. GEO DA-ASAT, anyone?
Anyway, I would not directly link this test to the current global situation, except perhaps in terms of the lack of grounds for suspending the project in principle. US missile defenses are not limited, quite the opposite, no arms control negotiations at the horizon, great power competition is at full swing and we are on the brink of a full scale multipolar and cross-domain qualitative and quantitative arms race. Sad, but also kind of fun.
It had been stated by Peskov that all relevant countries have been notified of the launch in accordance with the established procedures. Good to know, but more details about mechanisms used would be most helpful.
Now let's wait for the reactions of partners and adversaries, especially as everyone is currently gathered in New York for the NPT RevCon. Reactions from my subscribers and followers are most welcome too!
PS You've probably all seen the launch video (ping me in case not), but the Kremlin readout is also worth reading. Comments by both Karakayev and Putin are good for future references.