STRATDELA #33
Welcome back!
I did not plan to keep you waiting for a first regular 2025 issue till Spring, but anyway. Lots of stuff going on everywhere, and hope you are following STRATDELA on Telegram as well to keep up with all the developments.
Strategic offensive weapons
Announced 2025 plans for the Russian strategic nuclear forces are as follows:
4 x Tu-160M
Knyaz Pozharsky SSBN
Continuation of SRF rearmament with Yars ICBM
Tu-160 and Tu-95MS have been flying here and there, Yars ICBMs are rolling from time to time, nothing uncommon so far.
Trident II D5 Life Extension 2 got its new contract.
B-52s had some fun in Europe and over the Middle East.
Joint operations with French, Swedish and Finnish jets are important.
Flying a nuclear-capable heavy bomber over Estonia is especially symbolic.
B-1Bs relocated from Ellsworth AFB, so it will be refurbished to host B-21. We’ve had a special issue on that. Raiders, in the meantime, got a new LRIP contract. Its production might be accelerated.
Hyperhype
DPRK knows how to, well, hyperhype:
Japanese are getting serious with their hypersonic weapons as well.
Great slide on Zumwalt getting ready to receive hypersonic CPS.
US Army LRHW “Dark Eagle” should be ready for deployment in 2025 FY. Still some concerns about its, well, lethality remain.
India demonstrated a fancy mockup HGV for long-range ballistic missiles (let’s remember the name Dhvani) and also gave access to its hypersonic AShM for the general public.
Still, they should be cautious with bragging about hypersonic capabilities as long as there is no numerous tests and operational deployments.
Post-INF
The US Typhon still rolling between sites in Philippines. Fun times.
Early Warning and Missile Defense
First it was Iron Dome for America, now it is Golden Dome…let’s wait and see. I’d especially like to see the DoD conclusions regarding its effects on strategic stability, as requested by Secretary Hegseth.
Understandably, sensors are crucial for the project. Some fancy new stuff should be expected as well.
Also, this Castelion thing should be followed closely, I assume.
Military Space
United States Space Force plans to have terrestrial and orbital counterspace weapons by 2050. Nice!
Integration of US-Japan military space operations has been expected and is getting a material dimension.
Space Fires, what can go wrong?
Roscosmos got a new head, Dmitry Bakanov. Some changes expected, probably greater focus on practical applications.
Draper engine by Ursa Major proposed for future orbital Iron Golden Dome applications.
Kind of selfie by X-37B released. Epic.
Fight for the Golden Dome driver’s seat is on, USSF really wants it.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
MTCR got another hit, this time from the US.
Some New START issues were raised by the previous US Admin. Let’s see how it will develop.
In-person Russia-US official meeting happened. Good.
Some good messages flew between Washington and Moscow regarding openings on general normalization with arms control and specifically post-New START mentioned, but nothing substantial. Great overview by Elena Chernenko available here. [In Russian]
New Russian Ambassador to the US Alexander Darchiyev received his Agrément. Let’s see who will be his counterpart flying from DC to Moscow.
Some thoughts on possible post-START available here [In Russian].
Further reading (and listening)
Scholarly article “Disruptive Technologies as a Source of Strategic Destabilization” by yours truly.
Trialogue Podcast with me talking about all sorts of stuff.
Vneshnyaya Politika podcast with me [in Russian].
The Global Third Nuclear Age: Clashing Visions for a New Era in International Politics book.
United States nuclear weapons, 2025.
Essay on nuclear-conventional integration.
Great collection of essays on cyber/outer space issues and challenges from The Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI).
Nuclear Risks: Perceptions and Pathways – Retreat Report.
Cool stuff about US nuclear test range and labs.
Detailed piece on US Missile Defense (before Golden Dome announcement) [In Russian].
Quality analysis of gaps in the European space capabilities.
Cool report on the Chinese ballistic missiles.
Some great ideas for New Space folks to get serious about military space challenges.
Good overview of arms race in space.
Broad thoughts on military-technical takeaways from 2024 [In Russian].
Latest STRATDELA Special on Guam Defense System.
Alexei Arbatov on Nuclear Doctrine and Strategic Stability.
Very detailed piece on why the international community should be very cautious with Ukranian “nuclear ambitions” from the international law perspective.
Fantastic report on Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force.
Great deep dive into X-37B.
Overview on new/old ideas about the French nuclear umbrella over EU.
Nice op-ed on how actually independent the British Nuclear Deterrent is.
Good long rundown on all thing B61-12.
Report on how the US should secure advantage in Space (not that we will let them).
Anatoly Antonov theses on the future of arms control. [In Russian].
Great report on RAF Lakenheath getting re-nuclearized.
Music
Atmospheric folk-ish Black Metal originally from Krasnoyarsk, these guys are great:
End Notes
Let’s end with this rare archival photo of the French IRBM launch.
Rather topical, if you know what I mean.
Stay sane, dear readers, spread the word, signup, leave feedback, etc. I am always open to suggestions and other interactions!