STRATDELA #37
Summer's End
Summer was quite packed, and more to follow. Procrastination and broken deadlines plague my workflow, but will still try to keep delivering. By the way, any feedback would be most welcome - I really need to know that people read and reflect on what I do:)
Strategic offensive weapons
UK and France signed a Northwood declaration announcing deepening of nuclear weapons and nuclear deterrence cooperation. Kind of a big deal, let’s see how it will work out. I’ve posted some thoughts on Telegram. ICYMI, I’ve had a Special about one of the areas of such cooperation:
US non-strategic nuclear weapons are likely deployed to RAF Lakenheath.
Important point on the future of the US ICBMs (story linked below):
"Some argue that America should complicate the targeting even further by making at least some ICBMs mobile, as China and Russia do....General Gebara says it was studied anew and rejected because it would be both expensive and unpopular."
Also some details I’ve missed about Sentinel found here:
It will be larger, though lighter, than the Minuteman, owing to modern construction materials and techniques. Each missile, under current nuclear doctrine, will carry just one nuclear warhead, although the missile’s payload capacity would almost certainly allow for this number to be increased if policies changed. Additionally, the extra capacity can be used to carry decoy payloads to either passively or actively disrupt hostile interception efforts.
Second stage rocket motor for Sentinel tested. Successfully.
US Columbia SSBN becoming more expensive. No surprises. We’ve had a Special on it as well.
USAF Heavy Bombers continue to be in heavy demand. So, naturally, they want A LOT of B-21s. And continuous operations.
Hyperhype
B-1B will get more pylons for hypersonic weapons…testing (so far).
Perfect hyperhype example:
Hypersonic weapons represent a critical enabler for the distributed force strategy currently being implemented by Indo-Pacific Command. As military planners grapple with the challenge of deterring Chinese aggression while maintaining presence across vast Pacific distances, prompt strike capabilities become essential.
Dark Eagle traveled to Australia.
…and even more hyperhype:
“This is a significant move forward for hypersonics, and it's a significant strategic capability for our nation,” he said. “It will hopefully serve as a deterrent for those who wish to threaten our strategic advantage.”
HACM test flights might happen relatively soon.
Post-INF (and other long-range precision weapons)
France and UK announced further cooperation in long-range weapons. ELSA included in the Lancaster House 2.0 declaration, although the project itself does not seem to progress rapidly.
Germany, while waiting for ELSA (UK cooperation emphasized) asks for Typhon from the US. Lockheed Martin promises to deliver swiftly.
Typhon itself saw some action in Australia.
LRASM and JASSM production is getting a boost.
In Russia, there are officials suggesting that several new INF-range weapons are planned for the Russian arsenal, not only Oreshnik. Oreshnik itself (as well as NSNW) will be included in the Zapad-2025 exercise, although with a focus on planning, not actual use.
Russian FSB and MoD carried out a joint operation targeting Ukrainian Sapsan SRBM production.
There were more reports of strikes against Sapsan storages.
Might be a coincidence, but looks like this ‘deep strike capability’ being at least partially degraded might open up some room for other options advertised for Ukraine - a lot of talk about the so-called Flamingo GLCM (which looks like FP-5 Milanion).
The beast looks huge:
Some folks already found the possible engine (from a combat jet trainer), the warhead looks like a repurposed gravity bomb, and other good people already geolocated the possible storage and production facilities. Well, it looks brutal, but if launched (and even if intercepted), it still can do a lot of damage. Range (~3000 km) and payload (~1000 kg) seem quite possible.
Also, let’s not forget about proliferation concerns - we all know the source of technology for Iranian cruise missiles.
Early Warning and Missile Defense and Military Space
11th Space Warning Squadron received an award for their work tracking Iranian ballistic missile launches.
Northrop Grumman already testing space-based missile defense interceptors. And new rocket motors.
Golden Dome is not only about interceptors and ballistic missiles, so some companies are preparing joint pitches to address drones and cruise missiles. More media briefings can be found here. Some details on SHIELD also disclosed by the MDA. And even more here, probably I need a new Special on Golden Dome specifically.
US Space Force is looking for more funds to pour into the MILNET, as well as several classified programs.
X-37B is back in Space - with quantum sensors and laser communications, among other things.
Angara-1.2 delivered some military payloads to the orbit.
Military Industry
I’ve struggled choosing the section for this, but this might be the best option: US Army wants a common launcher for offensive and defensive missiles.
Kongsberg Australia gets contracts from European countries for the NSM stuff.
Arms control, diplomacy and signalling
There has been a mini-crisis in nuclear domain with Medvedev and Trump using social media inappropriately. Nothing dramatic, but still noteworthy.
Russian Post-INF moratorium is dead.
Putin explicitly mentioned agreements on strategic offensive arms a possible next stage of Russia-US dialogue which might contribute to long-term global peace. It happened before the Alaska Summit, and nothing else surfaced, but let’s be patient.
Putin also traveled to Sarov, one of the most important nuclear-related towns in Russia, but apart from applauding the glory of Soviet and Russian nuclear science and industry, nothing specific had been said. Which might be important in itself.
Further reading (and listening)
Let’s start with a couple of latest Specials:
Some stuff on Russia-US arms control priorities should Putin and Trump decide to go that way.
Broader thoughts on Post-INF Post-Moratorium by yours truly.
Some thoughts by me about the latest BRICS declaration [In Russian]
Some comments by a colleague on the future Iranian nuclear challenges [In Russian]
Nice report on NC3 and AI
Facts and figures on Chinese RPOs
Good overview of current state of B-52H maintenance
Updated French Strategic Review
Video from a public event on private actors and space militarization:
Overview of the latest France-UK arrangements
French Nuclear Weapons 2025 notebook
A report on the current and future missile proliferation challenges
A story about day-to-day operations of the US missileers in silos
A piece on the latest British Strategic Defence Review [In Russian]
A story on the Russia-US nuclear degradation
US scholars thoughts on strategic stability
Russian thoughts on Golden Dome
More details on Golden Dome
Overview of Chinese missile we might see during the Parade in early September.
Music
What can be better than an old good thrash metal band singing about AI - and sounding very modern:
End Notes
So, that’s it, kind of.
Stay tuned.